Feed: Chinese ‘hiding military build-up’ - AggScore: 12.9

Chinese ‘hiding military build-up’

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div! cTstoryDetails divh5Philip Dorlingh5citeciteAUSTRALIAS intelligence agencies believe China is hiding the extent of a massive military buildup that goes beyond national defence and threatens regional stability.divdivdiv! classoverlay overlayAd div! idvideoplayercontent A strategic assessment by the agencies found that Chinas military spending for 2006 was 90 billion double the 45 billion budget publicly announced by Beijing.Australias peak intelligence agency, the Office of National Assessments the Defence Intelligence Organisation and the Defence and Foreign Affairs departments concluded that China was building a military capability well beyond its priorities of defence and the prevention of Taiwanese independence. Chinas longerterm agenda is to develop comprehensive national power, including a strong military, that is in keeping with its view of itself as a great power, according to a copy of the secret assessment provided by Foreign Affairs officials to the US embassy in Canberra.We agree that the trend of Chinas military modernisation is beyond the scope of what would be required for a conflict over Taiwan. Arguably China already poses a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region and will present an even more formidable challenge as its modernisation continues.Details of the 2006 Australian intelligence assessment are contained in a US embassy cable obtained by WikiLeaks and provided exclusively to emThe Ageem.The Australian document warns that the pace of Chinas military buildup and the opacity of Beijings intentions and programs were already altering the balance of power in Asia and could be a destabilising influence.There is the potential for possible misconceptions which could lead to a serious miscalculation or crisis, it says.The Australian intelligence agencies suggested that China could overestimate its capabilities, with a significant risk of strategic miscalculation and instability.The nature of the Peoples Liberation Army and the regime means that transparency will continue to be viewed as a potential vulnerability. This contributes to the likelihood of strategic misperceptions, the document warns. The rapid improvements in PLA capabilities, coupled with a lack of operational experience and faith in asymmetric strategies, could lead to China overestimating its military capability.These factors, coupled with rising nationalism, heightened expectations of Chinas status, Chinas historical predilection for strategic deception, difficulties with Japan and the Taiwan issue mean that miscalculations and minor events could quickly escalate.Although successive Australian governments have called on China to be more transparent about its military expenditure, ministers and diplomats have avoided public references to the scale of the discrepancy between Beijings published figures and the likely reality.The Australian estimate of a 2006 military budget of 90 billion has not been previously revealed, though it is consistent with academic and published US government estimates of Chinas military expenditure.The classified Australian assessment is also much sharper than the language subsequently contained in the Rudd Labor governments 2009 Defence white paper, which said China was on the way to becoming Asias strongest military power by a considerable margin and warned that the pace and scope of its growth could give its neighbours cause for concern if not properly explained.The Rudd government publicly played down reports of a hostile Chinese reaction to the white paper when it was released, but secretly told the US that Beijing had threatened that Australia would suffer the consequences if references to Chinas growing military capabilities were not watered down.Although defence chief Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston and then defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon insisted that China had no problem with the white paper, other leaked US embassy cables report that then defence deputy secretary Mike Pezzullo briefed US diplomats that he had been dressed down by Chinese officials who had a look of cold fury at the references to China in the paper.In the September 2006 briefing to the US embassy, Foreign Affairs officials said Australia hoped to use its defence relationship with China to promote transparency.We remain focused on deepening the AustraliaChina defence relationship in areas such as peacekeeping, counterterrorism and junior leadership exchanges, while remaining cautious to avoid practical cooperation that might help the PLA to fill capability gaps, the Australian paper presented to the embassy says.The Australian and Chinese navies held their first joint exercise involving live ammunition in September last year. Last month Defence Department secretary Ian Watt and Air Chief Marshal Houston attended the 13th annual AustraliaChina Defence Strategic Dialogue, hosted in China by General Chen Bingde, Chief of the PLA General Staff.Air Chief Marshal Houston said We committed to continuing to develop our military relationship and practical cooperation together.divdiv