Atlanta Braves
2011—89-73
Key Additions--- None
Key Losses-------Derek Lowe, Alex Gonzalez
Lineup---I expect this offense to be about what they were last year when they won 89 games and really fell on their face to lose out on the playoffs. The outfield starts with Jason Heyward. He really struggled last year but you have to hope he can put it behind him and learn from it. He will be a big key to this offense. I really like Michael Bourn. Although I would like him to get on base more, when he gets on he steals and sets up runs. That is a great guy to have at the top of the lineup. LF is split, with Eric Hinske getting time and Martin Prado filling in at times as well. Although I don’t believe Gonzalez is a huge loss, I still believe he was better than what they will have at that position this year. Prado and Chipper Jones, in his last year, will man 3b. For one I hope Chipper can contribute one last time for this team. It is refreshing to see a player spend his whole career with 1 team. The right side of the infield has a chance to be very good for this team. Dan Uggla has a monster power year last year, but needs to bring his average up. Freddie Freeman was pretty solid, and they hope he can get better. Brian McCann offensively is one of the best in the game, so you can expect him to continue to produce. Although they did not make a splash on offense, I do think this offense if Heyward can emerge is plenty good enough to win the division.
Pitching---Health, Health, Health. I know I have said it a few times, but this is what this staff is all about. When you have youngsters who need to prove they can stay healthy and a veteran in Tim Hudson who is out for the first few weeks, you have to question the ability to get through 162 games. However, the depth they have built will help them accomplish that. Considering all of the trade rumors around Jair Jurrjens, he is expected to anchor this rotation. With Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy lining up behind him, that is powers arms at the front of this rotation. With Hudson out to start the year, that leave youngsters to fill in at the back end. But to be clear, very good youngsters at that. Mike Minor, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran all have great arms and potential, and expect to fit in the Braves plan for a long time. This bullpen was lights out last year, and although they return many of the same guys I have concerns that the work load put on them last year will come back to haunt them. I hope I am wrong, because they are fun to watch with Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters coming in to close it out. As a pitching staff as a whole though, they are definitely capable of winning this division.
Outlook---With a few breaks going their way, I think we are going to see the Braves in a very similar position as last year, battling it out for a playoff spot. However, this relies on Heyward stepping it up a notch, some of their veterans staying healthy, and the youngsters in the staff and bullpen maintaining the numbers that they had last year. All in all though, I really like not only what this team looks like for this year, but also into the future. And although I was never a huge Chipper Jones fan, I would love to see him go out on a positive note.
Kansas City Royals
2011—71-91
Key Additions--- Jonathan Broxton, Jonathan Sanchez
Key Losses-------Melky Cabrera
Lineup---This lineup is full of youngsters. Some have proven to be very good hitters, while others are still trying to prove they belong in the big leagues. Alex Gordon in LF is turning into one of the best young players into the game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the All Star team this year. He is something special and I hope he will be a Royal for a long time. By dealing Cabrera they opened the door for Lorenzo Cain, who will be given the full time CF job. While he is great defensively, I am not sure if will produce much offense. Jeff Francoeur had a nice bounce back year last year, and is expected to man RF. The infield is young and inexperienced and could go either way. Mike Moustakas will play 3b, and although he got some time last year is expected to get his first full season under his belt. Alcides Escobar and Chris Getz are above average defensively, but lack much offense from the middle. When you factor in Cain in CF, these 2 guys up the middle and the injury to Salvador Perez, they are as light hitting up the middle as anyone. Eric Hosmer should be a good hitter at 1b, and they are really relying on Billy Butler to provide a middle of the order bat from their DH. This lineup is definitely capable of the numbers, and will be fun to see how these young guys develop.
Pitching---As many top prospects as they have in this lineup, you would think they would have at least 1 or 2 in this rotation, but that is not the case. They have really scrapped together this starting rotation. Luke Hochevar will be leading the rotation, although he finished last year with a 4.68 ERA. They re-signed Bruce Chen to be their #2, and considering he pitched in the last game at old Riverfront stadium, that should say a lot about this signing. The acquisition of Sanchez was a solid one. He isn’t as impressive as some of the other pitchers that were moved this year, but will provide stability in the rotation. Luis Mendoza and Danny Duffy(great name) will fill the back 2 spots of the rotation. Obviously, the back end of this rotation is not as solid as you would like. The bullpen took a huge hit with the injury to Joakim Soria. Their ability to really shorten games would have been a big key, with set up men Aaron Crowe and Jonathan Broxton. Now they will move one to the closer role and have less depth. With a rotation as young as they have, this injury is a very important loss.
Outlook---Once again, the Royals are being seen in the media as sleeper picks. Last year they were viewed the same way, although I did not buy into it. They may improve this year, mainly because they are no longer the worst team in their division, but I don’t expect them to be too big of factors in the dog days of summer. Yes this team is still building, but until they can build on their pitching, they will struggle to be competitive.
San Diego Padres
2011—71-91
Key Additions--- Huston Street, Carlos Quentin, Reds Farm System
Key Losses-------Mat Latos, Heath Bell,
Lineup---Considering they play in a very large ballpark, this lineup may end up scoring the least runs in the league. I really don’t see who is a constant who is going to provide the stability in this offense. They gave Cameron Maybin a nice contract, and his defense is great, but he is still a below average hitter. Will Venable will hold on the right field spot, and Jesus Guzman seems to be the front runner to start in LF. The hope is Carlos Quentin can get healthy and provide that middle of the order bat in the outfield. I was and still am very high on Yonder Alonso while he was with the Reds, and look forward to seeing how he produces for this team. To me, the rest of the infield is very average at best, with Jason Bartlett playing SS, Orlando Hudson at 2b, and Chase Headley at 3b. Nick Hundley has a chance to be an above average catcher if he can play 140 games, but if not they have Yasmani Grandal who is another player they got from the Reds. While I think this offense can be good in a few years, this year is going to be a struggle.
Pitching---There are some good arms on this team that I expect to have pretty solid years for the Padres. Honestly, it is hard to tell the true numbers with the park, but they should have some guys that have solid numbers at the end. I really like how they got Edinson Volquez in the Mat Latos trade, and if he has a bounce back year they could either look to extend him or deal him for some more pieces in the future. Cory Luebke will finally get the chance to stay in the rotation and has the ability to be a #2 or 3 pitcher for this team. Tim Stauffer and Clayton Richard both produced pretty good numbers last year, and should do the same if they can go 200 innings. The bullpen has been the strength in the past, but with the loss of Bell to the Marlins they will struggle at times. Yes they did pick up Huston Street, but all in all this bullpen is a long ways from where they were a few years ago.
Outlook---All in all, this is another team with a plan. I like the deals they made in the offseason, and love what they got in return with the Reds. They potentially got 2 future middle of the order bats as well as a chip in Volquez that could prove very valuable. But for this season, this team will really struggle to score runs no matter how productive this staff is. Taking into account the quality of the pitching staff in the NL West, be prepared for some low scoring games in San Diego this year.