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altIslam Is Afire While Obama Fiddles hspace5 vspace5 alignright
emIs that a fiddle I hear there somewhere drifting through those
fired dry sandsemRaphie FrankAnother week with Barack Obama as U.S.
President and radical Islam grows even stronger.Egypt, Americas
largest and most important ally in the Middle East, is aflame as
revolutionary forces marched and even burned President Hosni
Mubaraks Ruling Party headquarters.As I write to you the streets of
Cairo are ablaze following a week of mass demonstrations in which
thousands of people have attacked the police and ignored curfews.
The people want to end the 30year dictatorial rule of Mubarak, but
radical elements are quickly bending the protests their way in an
all out effort to turn the land of the Pyramids into the home of
martyrs.If the extremists in Egypt can do what they did in Iran,
then the Middle Easthome to twothirds of the worlds oil
reserveswill turn to Islamic law.Egypt sits at the crossroads
between Europe and the Middle East.Not only does it have the
largest Arab population but also the strongest conventional army in
the region.Since the fall of the Shah in Iran, Egypt has provided
the glue that held the Middle East together. It was Egypt that was
the first Arab nation to recognize Israel and it is always Cairo at
center stage in any Middle East peace process.Political analyst
Simeon Mitropolitski sums up what is at stakeblockquoteemEgypt
ememoffers a completely different political and social model,
something between the Iranian and the Taliban versions of Islamic
state. In 1954 this organization was banned and shortly afterward
it was accused of trying to assassinate President Nasser, a
champion of alternative secular social and political
model.emblockquoteRegardless of what is at stake, Egypt is burning
and the Obama administration has once again been caught off
guard.On Monday, Washington was desperately trying to fly more than
2,400 U.S. citizens out of Egypt.It appears that no contingency
plan was made for this revolt. Again, American intelligence
services appear to be anything but intelligent.So far the State
Department has put a remarkable positive spin on events, just like
they did when the Shah was toppled.But wishful thinking isnt going
to create a new Egypt built on Thomas Jeffersons ideals.It is far
more likely that America and the world will have to deal with an
Islamicruled Egypt, if not now then in a few short years.One of the
most immediate worries is the Suez Canal, a waterway that opens
into the Red Sea and which is a choke point for much of the worlds
oil supply. Egypts primary export is cotton.The world isnt going to
fall apart because of a cotton shortage.Yet whoever rules Egypt
also has their hands on the Suez spigot. This could have an
immediate shortterm impact on oil deliveriesthe price of crude has
surged more than 6 per barrel in just the past two trading
days.Rioting in Cairo could spread fast.Many businesses have shut
down operations. Egypts stock market EGX has been closed after it
fell 16 percent last week.Outside of Egypt the financial center of
the Middle East, Abu Dhabi, has been hit the hardest.On the Dubai
exchange shares plummeted to a oneyear low.If unrest grows and the
Suez Canal closes it wont be some far off stock exchange falling,
it will be the New York Stock Exchange.But there is something far
more worrisome than a 25 percent correction in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average or even 5 per gallon gasoline.Rather think of
the ramifications if Egypt, a center post of Americas war on
terror, falls into the hands of the enemy.Forget Robert McNamaras
incorrect domino theory that was projected for Southeast Asia in
the 1960s. If Egypt crumbles there really will be a cascade of
giant dominoes headed straight for the West and riding atop each
one of them will be a crazed terrorist with a bomb strapped to his
back.It is still too soon to say what will arise from this revolt,
but it could center on the growing power of Egypts Muslim
Brotherhood MB. According to the emBusiness
InsideremblockquoteemThe MB would be calamitous for U.S. security.
Whats more, their current defenders dont really argue that point,
as much as they seem to dismiss it as not important or something we
can live with. The MB supports Hamas and other terrorist groups,
makes friendly noises to Iranian dictators and torturers, wouldbe
uncertain landlords of the critical Suez Canal, and opposes the
EgyptianIsraeli agreement of 1979, widely regarded as the
foundation of peace in the Mideast. Above all, the MB would
endanger counterterrorism efforts in the region and worldwide. That
is a very big deal.emblockquoteThis leaves the United States at the
mercy of another Iranian crisis, but this time around is far
worse.True, Iran was a major oil exporter and Egypt is not.However
the world was consuming only half as much oil when the Shah fell
compared to today. More importantly, during the Iranian revolution
Saudi Arabia had enough spare oil production capacity to replace
all of Irans oil exports.In fact, the House of Saud increased oil
output from 8 million barrels per day to more than 12 million
barrels per day.That is something that Saudi Arabia can no longer
do.If another Islamic Revolution gains traction in Egypt how much
longer will there even be a Saudi Arabia as we know itEgypt has
been a great counterbalance against extremism in the Middle East
for almost 40 years.It has provided critical support to Arab oil
producers like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and it has been the primary
reason there has been peace between Israel and the Arab world.The
Middle East is a bigger tinderbox than ever and once again Obama
has shown that, under his leadership, the world continues to become
a less safe place.Is it his fault that Egypt is burningNo. But it
is his fault that he and his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton,
didnt see it coming and werent able to force Mubarak to reform his
dictatorial rule before it was too late.Now the world will have to
pay the consequences.strongAction To TakestrongDouble down on your
oil investments. Canadian oil sands can only benefit from the
trouble that is brewing in the Middle East. If you have not yet
bought shares in Suncor Energy NYSE, SU, 41 I urge you to do so.The
price of the stock has doubled in the past two years.I expect that
it could double again over the next year.Yours in good times and
bad,emJohn MyersememMyers Energy amp Gold Reportem
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