blockquotePeople should remember the lesson of Lebanon, as they
watch events unfold in Egypt.blockquoteimg classalignleft
srchttpwww.aim.orgwpcontentuploads201102800px2011Egyptprotestssittinglineofmen300x225.jpg
alt width300 height225 The events unfolding in Egypt that began on
January 25 were indeed historic, but they may well be obscuring a
much bigger story going on in the region, that the media are
generally ignoring. The crowds that assembled in Egypt were large
indeed, but not unprecedented, as was widely reported. While many
in the media stated that the recent uprising in Tunisia, resulting
in the removal of a dictator, was what sparked a democratic
revolution in the heart of Egypt, the story of revolutions and
attempts to democratize began much earlier. Perhaps the spark may
have been with the start of the war in Iraq, in March of 2003. Or
maybe with the first free elections in Iraq, with the purple
inkstained fingers, in March of 2005.Or maybe it was the Cedar
Revolution. However, on January 25, 2011, the Cedar Revolution in
Lebanon came to an end, the same day that the uprising began in
Egypt. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri stepped down as prime
minister from a coalition government with the Iranian backed
Hezbollah, which he had headed. His father, Rafik Hariri, a former
prime minister, was assassinated on February 14, 2005, along with
22 others, in a massive truck bomb explosion. Protests began a week
later, with some 20,000 people in the streets outside the hotel
where Hariri had died.Two weeks later, the Syrianbacked regime
collapsed, as a result of the demonstrations. On March 14, 2005, an
estimated one million people gathered in Beirut, far more than at
any of the Egyptian demonstrations, and the Syrians announced that
they would remove their remaining 14,000 troops from the country.
The last soldiers left on April 26, and Syria was out. The idea of
a true democracy in the Arab world all of a sudden seemed real.Saad
Hariri was later forced into a coalition government with Hezbollah,
the Iranian backed militia and terrorist organization, but that
came to an end on January 25, replaced by a coalition dominated by
Hezbollah. The Cedar Revolution is a cautionary tale about
democracy in the Middle East. Hezbollah, an avowed enemy of Israel,
has taken power in Lebanon.While there has been much attention
focused on negotiations and sanctions to stop Iran from getting
nuclear weapons, this has really been more of a diversion from what
the Iranians are up to. Iran created and backs Hezbollah in Lebanon
to the tune of close to a billion dollars a year, and Hamas in
Gaza.According to Khaled Abu Toameh, an Arab Muslim, who writes for
The Jerusalem Post and has worked as a producer and consultant for
NBC News since 1989, The wellmeaning prodemocracy protesters in
Cairo, Tunis, Amman and other Arab capitals have set in motion a
process of political change, but the Islamist extremists hiding in
the shadows are just biding their time, waiting for the moment when
they can turn these developments to their own, more sinister,
advantage.He writes that There are growing signs that radical
Islamic groups are trying to hijack the prodemocracy uprising that
is currently sweeping the Arab world. In Tunisia and Egypt, the
Muslim Brotherhood is already trying to exploit the popular
uprisings to score political gains.Abu Toameh says that If the
prodemocracy, antigovernment movements in these countries fail to
distance themselves from the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt and Tunisia
could easily fall into the hands of Irans proxies.He says that
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani has said that uprisings in
Tunisia and Egypt are the result of the Islamic awakening in Middle
East countries.Already in Tunisia, the exiled leader of Tunisias
Muslim Brotherhood equivalent, Rashid Ghannouchi, has returned to
Tunisia and received a heros welcome. And in Egypt, the Muslim
Brotherhood has thrown its political backing to opposition leader
and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA
Mohammed ElBaradei. ElBaradei, who shared a Nobel Peace Prize with
the IAEA in 2005, is regularly described in the media as a
moderate. But others are concerned by his ties to the Muslim
Brotherhood, and a history of downplaying the Iranian threat, as
when he stated that the danger of a nucleararmed Iran is
overestimated.Many of the anchors and correspondents from the major
networks dutifully made the trek to Cairo to bear witness to the
demonstrations Katie Couric, Brian Williams, Anderson Cooper,
Christiane Amanpour. But while reporting with the crowds in the
background, were they really able to glean what was going on The
message was loud and clear. This was a broadbased demonstration,
with students and university graduates using Twitter and Facebook,
the unemployed, and people just fed up with a corrupt,
authoritarian regime, standing for freedom and democracy. The
Muslim Brotherhood came late to the protests, we were told, but
dont worry, there is nothing to fear from them. After all, they
make up no more than 30 of the population. However, with no other
groups well organized, besides the military, 30 makes the
Brotherhood the political power center inside Egypt.Richard Engel
of NBC News said of the Muslim Brotherhood that A lot of them are
truly patriotic Egyptians, and that They were nice people. I mean,
if you fell down in the street, they would come and help you out.
If you didnt have enough money for the bus, they would give you
money. But he offered this warning, whether intentional or not They
control a lot of the organizations that people would think are
popular, a lot of the labor unions, the lawyers union, the
different professional syndicates in this country. So what could
seem like a professional revolution by the middle class could also
have a lot of involvement by the Muslim Brotherhood.People should
remember the lesson of Lebanon, as they watch events unfold in
Egypt. The focus of the world has been on two issues in this
region. One is the IsraeliPalestinian peace process, the other is
Irans efforts to acquire nuclear weapons.But in the meantime,
through Hezbollah and Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood,
Iran has been expanding its reach throughout the area. They have
supplied explosive devices in Iraq for the purpose of killing
American troops there, and have sought a significant role in
shaping Iraqs government.The other kindling elements to this
uprising have been WikiLeaks, AlJazeera and social media such as
Facebook and Twitter. Through WikiLeaks, for example, weve learned
that Iran received 19 missiles from North Korea. And we have
learned of American awareness of the often brutal nature of the
Mubarak regime.So when will Iran have deliverable nuclear weapons
Whenever it decides it is in its best interest to have them. In the
meantime, Iran has effective control over Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and
has within its sites, Yemen and the biggest prize of all, Egypt.
Not because of oil. Egypt ranks 21st among oil producing nations.
But because of the Suez Canal, the largest population in the Arab
world at about 80 million, a beachhead on the Mediterranean in
Northern Africa, and an affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood, who
many in the West are telling us not to worry about.Ive watched
hours of AlJazeera through these past couple of weeks, and they
dont seem concerned about the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood.
As AIMs Cliff Kincaid pointed out in a recent column, AlJazeera
consistently and misleadingly describes the Muslim Brotherhood as a
nonviolent organization. In return, the Muslim Brotherhood
describes AlJazeera as the greatest Arab media organization.Of the
despots, monarchs, theocrats and tyrants that operate in the Middle
East, from an American national security perspective, Egypt has
been a relatively reliable ally, in terms of maintaining peace with
Israel, and by not supporting groups such as Hamas in Gaza. Frankly
it would have been preferable for other governments, most notably
Iran, to fall to democratic revolutions before Egypt. That is
because the outcome is by no means clear, and the potential for
something much worse is very real.Claudia Rosett, longtime
journalist and expert on Middle Eastern issues, has pointed to a
double standard in how the Obama administration has reacted to the
situation versus how he reacted to the popular uprising in Iran in
2009, when he said the parties should continue the debate to
resolve their issues. She asks why the Obama administration was
content during the Iranian uprising to bear witness, but is now
reported to be working flatout to ensure Egyptian officials kick
start a transition. Actually, one could ask a lot of questions.
Does Chinas President Hu Jintao represent a regime any less brutal
than that of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt Yet, just last month, President
Obama hosted a state dinner for Hu at the White House. So, is the
chief distinction, then, that despots who receive U.S. aid are ripe
for removal, but despots who are U.S. creditors are feted by the
presidentMaybe in the next presidential election, we will be
debating who lost Egypt. But preferably, well be debating instead
whether a thriving and peaceful democracy in Egypt should be
credited to George Bushs democracy agenda or to Barack Obama, for
wisely guiding the transition.Democracy is more than just holding
one election. It is the establishment of a free press, an
independent judiciary, freedom of association, and multiple
elections, followed by a peaceful transfer of power. In other
words, it doesnt happen overnight.Les Gelb of the Council on
Foreign Relations, writing for The Daily Beast, said that the Obama
White House hasnt helped matters by shifting policy ground almost
daily, causing confusion, and thereby squandering Americas
credibility and limited but precious influence. President Obama has
got to learn the fundamental rule of dealing with careening crises
State your basic principles and then shut up publicly! Meaning,
just boringly repeat your mantra daily.He described the
inconsistencies in the White Houses message They started out saying
that Mubaraks regime was stable, they proclaimed Egypt a close and
important ally, suggesting the need to support Mubarak, and added
that he was not a dictator. Then they threatened to review the
billiondollar U.S. aid package to Egypt, a real body blow to
Mubarak and the military. After Mubarak said he would not run for
reelection in September, they called for an orderly transition. As
protests continued, they called for Mubarak to begin the transition
now. In sum, they danced to and fro during the first several days
and then increasingly hardened their position against Mubarak even
as they were privately trying to get him to participate in his own
political demise.He might have added that in the second week, the
White House sent an envoy, Frank Wisner, a former ambassador, who
stated publicly, before the cameras, that he felt that Mubarak
should stay in power, and have a chance to write his own legacy.
Those words were quickly disavowed by the White House, and were
said to be Wisners personal views. Amateur hour continued.The
Economist magazine attempted to put the matter in context President
George W. Bush was indeed a far more active champion of democracy
than Mr. Obama has been. In 2005 his secretary of state,
Condoleezza Rice, gave a startling speech in Cairo in which she
said that having spent 60 years pursuing stability at the expense
of democracy in the Middle East, and achieving neither, America was
henceforth supporting the democratic aspirations of all people.
True to its word, the Bush administration nagged, scolded, bribed
and bullied its allies towards greater democracy. The Americans
leant on Egypt to hold more open elections in 2005, and in 2006
they talked an astonished Israel into letting Hamas contest
Palestinian elections in the occupied territories. Even the Saudis
were prevailed on to hold some men only local elections. All this
was based on a particular theory, the post911 neoconservative
conclusion that the root cause of terrorism was the absence of Arab
democracy. The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends
on the success of liberty in other lands, said Mr. Bush.Their point
was that Bushs critics were suddenly looking less cleverand Mr.
Bushs simple and rather wonderful notion that Arabs want, deserve
and are capable of democracy is looking rather wise. In pursuit of
this simple idea he was willing, up to a point, to discombobulate
longstanding American allies whose autocratic behaviour at home
America had long forgiven or overlooked in the interests of
realpolitik.Comparing Bush to President Obama, the Economist
article said that Barack Obama entered office eager to engage
Americas enemies and repair relations with Islam. So keen was he on
engagement that he gave only tepid support to 2009s green
revolution in Iran, which the regime went on to crush. As for
mending relations with Islam, Mr. Obama decided that this required
some diffidence. So his own big speech in Cairo stressed that
America does not presume to know what is best for everyone.That
lack of presumption, the neocons now say, was a grave mistake. It
gave the dictators a free pass and put America on the wrong side of
the barricades in Tahrir Square. Elliott Abrams, who was a senior
adviser to Mr. Bush, argues that Mr. Obamas misguided fixation on
peacemaking in Palestine made him forget about the millions
suffering under the boot of the Arab dictators.Then comes the
question of the Muslim Brotherhood, the oldest Islamist group,
founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan alBanna, who became a great
admirer of Adolf Hitler and his Nazi regime. Following an attempted
assassination of President Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1954, the group
was outlawed in Egypt.Many in the media have been assuring us that
they are no longer a problem. Very moderate, said Peter Bergen on
MSNBCs Hardball. News of the Muslim Brotherhood being included in a
new government was not bad news. An article on CNNs website said
that theyve long ago renounced violence as a means to achieve its
domestic agenda of Islamic change.Rashad alBayoumi, deputy leader
of the Brotherhood, said in an interview on Japans NHTV After
President Mubarak steps down and a provisional government is
formed, there is a need to dissolve the peace treaty with
Israel.For now the question is, can and should the Muslim
Brotherhood be welcomed, or allowed in as part of the new regime
that will replace Hosni Mubarak sometime later this yearInvestors
Business Daily editorialized on this debate To many Mideast
experts, fear of the Muslim Brotherhood is overblown, as a recent
headline put it. Maybe so. But the Brotherhood did win 20 of the
seats88 totalin Egypts parliament in elections held in 2005. The
bet among many Egypt watchers is if a vote were held today, the
Brotherhood would get at least 50 more than that and might garner
an outright majority.Dont worry, were toldMohammed Badie, the
recently elected head of the Brotherhood, is really a moderate. For
the record, heres what Badie had to say in one sermon last yearArab
and Muslim regimes are betraying their people by failing to
confront the Muslims real enemiesnot only Israel, but also the
United States. Waging jihad against both of these infidels is a
commandment of Allah that cannot be disregarded. Governments have
no right to stop their people from fighting the U.S.Despite this,
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton welcomed the Muslim Brotherhoods
participation, telling NPR that they at least are now involved in
the dialogue that we have encouraged.Dialogue with terrorist
supporters Sorry, but we shouldnt place the imprimatur of our
government on any movement that tolerates or advocates terrorism,
oppression and the extirpation of an entire peoplethe Jews. Yet
President Obama seems ready to clasp the Brotherhoods hand in
admiring friendshipa weird bromance if ever there was one.Finally,
the editorial writers at IBD ask, Is this just Carteresque naivete,
leading to a great tragedy like the deposing of the shah of Iran Or
is it something worsea dangerous world view that says even
terrorists who seek to kill us deserve Americas respect and
solicitudeThe question of whether this democratic uprising will
successfully overturn historical precedent and withstand the
hijacking by radicals that normally occurs in this part of the
world is yet to be answered.
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