Facebook sells about $1 billion of advertising every quarter and it's still growing, putting it on course to sell perhaps $5 billion or more in ads in 2012.
But what are the limits to its growth?
TBG Digital CEO Simon Mansell decided to try and figure it out based on Facebook's current numbers. (TBG sells and manages Facebook advertising.)
Once he'd finished figuratively scrawling on the back of an envelope, he found that Facebook's current ad inventory could top out at $10 billion a year.
The data assumes that Facebook completely sells out its entire inventory of ad space—which it never has. It also assumes Facebook won't increase the number of ad slots per page (which it is doing). It assumes CPMs (cost per thousand users) won't go up, which they well might. It ignores mobile advertising, which Facebook doesn't currently do but will begin imminently. And it assumes that there is no growth in users, which there obviously will be.
That said, here's how Mansell calculated the number:
Let's just call that $10 billion!
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Google chairman and former CEO Eric Schmidt just filed a plan to sell almost $1.5 billion worth of Google stock.
In a filing with the SEC, Schmidt laid out a plan to sell up to 2.4 million shares of Class A stock (he also has Class B stock which carries special voting rights).
At today's closing price of $605 per share, that equals $1.452 billion.
Assuming he goes through with the transaction, when he's done he'll own 2.1% of Google's stock (down from 2.8%) and have 7.3% voting power (down from 9.7%).
The trading plan was adopted in November and kicks off this month.
Last year, Schmidt filed to sell about $335 million worth of Google stock.
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The Internet has erupted in fury at Google's latest boneheaded move.
The details are complicated, but in basic terms, Google used a sneaky trick to bypass the default privacy settings on the iPhone and iPad.
As a result, Google could have tracked users' activity as they moved between different Web sites -- not just Google sites.
This understandably freaked some people out. Google has now stopped.
But there are actually a few easy steps you can take to make sure that NOBODY -- not Google, not ad networks, not anybody else -- can track which Web sites you visit on your iPhone or iPad.
Here are the steps.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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Scientists have created a robotic octopus tentacle that can grasp objects and move fluidly underwater.
This is the first step of a $13 million project, sponsored by the European Commission and developed by Italian and Israeli scientists in Tuscany.
The team plans to have a fully-functioning, eight-tentacles robotic octopus completed by the end of the year. The robot could be used for underwater rescue missions and its technology will be possibly implemented in a high-tech endoscope to perform operations.
Watch the Reuters report below.
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A commenter named "Lipstick on Pig" chimed in on our post about Starboard Value's preparations for a proxy duel with Tim Armstrong.
He (or she) is pretty displeased with the site's local news organization Patch.
Here's a lightly edited version of the entire comment:
Here are the 2012 Patch highlights so far
They changed our compensation plan this year, and it now includes a draw like feature (meaning you have to hit certain performance targets before a bonus kicks in) that you would typically find in radio sales. In 2011, they paid us about 75 percent of what we brought in — we had representatives that brought in $150,000 that were making $140,000 in salary + compensation, not including benefits or asset costs.
When I asked my boss about the huge losses at Patch and the fact that our cancellation rate is about 65 percent, he said, "why do you care? You're still getting paid aren't you? I'm going ride this thing into the ground." The sad thing is that's the mentality everyone at Aol shares. No one gives a fuck about the big picture.
They promoted the former sales director of the tri-state area to
lead Patch sales nationally after everyone else quit... It's hard
to retain top talent when you work on the media version of the
titanic. Patch doesn't have a clear strategy. Throughout
2011 they employed the "throw enough shit at the wall and hope
something sticks" strategy and... NOTHING STUCK!!!
Patch daily deals is an utter failure. Most deals are served for
a week with zero purchased!!! The product has been around since
August last year and shows the utter lack of engagement on Patch
sites! Self service ads were rolled out 11/2011 with a goal
of 5k being sold across the network, and we sold around 500...
They figured to give it another shot for a special valentines
shopping guide and we sold even less.
Ad.com ads are now trafficked across the Patch network for around
$.80 cost-per-mille (an advertising metric) when local
advertisers are charged $200-plus CPMs for the same ad
positions... I know this is hard to believe, but so is the fact
that Aol dumped $160 million into Patch in 2011.
We just hired some woman blogger to try to bring some
organization the editorial side of Patch — I thought this was
Brian Farnham's job?????? We installed Rachel Fishman to babysit
Brian and convince the local editors to run stores like "top
pizza shop in Andover." The content was shitty before and now it
looks like its about to get even shittier.
All of the best editors have left Patch and been replace by
under-qualified recent grands and by bloggers (mostly housewives
and high schoolers). Most sites don't even generate 100,000
pageviews each month!!!
Armstrong is out in the press saying sites were profitable in
2011. There were 6 sites that hit the $14,000/month 2 months in a
row target. Aol judges Patch profitability with the 2 month rule
— if a site is at $14,000 a month for 2 consecutive months it is
deemed profitable. It's a joke because it takes about 2 months
worth of effort, and sales team blitzes to get a site profitable
for 2 months.. And guess what... Everyone cancels by the middle
of month, so it's back to the drawing board — or as we say at Aol
its time to throw more shit at the wall and keep our fingers
crossed!!!!
AOL declined to comment.
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The guys at MacRumors say they got their hands on a
display from Apple's upcoming iPad 3.
And just as other rumors have been saying, the iPad 3 appears to offer a Retina Display just like the one on the iPhone 4 and 4S.
MacRumors looked at the screen under a microscope and confirmed that the resolution will be double that of the iPad 2.
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After the first few days of inspections at Foxconn by the Fair Labor Association, the group's CEO tells Bloomberg it has found several issues with the facility.
In the Bloomberg interview, FLA's CEO Auret van Heerden said:
“We’re finding tons of issues...I believe we’re going to see some very significant announcements in the near future.”
But van Heerden wouldn't get more specific than that.
Apple ordered the inspections by the FLA earlier this week following a series of reports in The New York Times and on NPR about the poor working conditions at the company's suppliers in China.
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Pinterest might not be legal. Users throw copyright caution to the wind as they high jack millions of photos from across the web and share them on virtual pinboards.
Piccsy, a photo discovery platform founded in 2010, has a lot of content that gets poached by Pinterest users. A recent study showed Piccsy content makes up ~ 0.15% of total Pinterest pins. It's the 18th most shared site on Pinterest.
You'd think Piccsy would be upset. Instead, it is "extremely
happy" to share its content.
"As far as I'm concerned, any traffic to Piccsy is good traffic,"
says founder Daniel Eckler.
His site receives about 30 million monthly pageviews; Pinterest drives many of those visits. According to Google Analytics, Pinterest has sent about 600,000 visitors to Piccsy in the past year -- 50,000 in the past month alone.
The traffic is coming from more than 200,000 pin sources and the
users Pinterest sends are highly engaged. The average
Pinterest visitor views 6 Piccsy pages per session and spends 4
minutes on the site. No specific pins yield a ton of
traffic yet; Eckler is benefiting from the combined power of all
of the pins.
"The fact that it's distributed across many pins means that users
of Pinterest will likely return again and again, instead of users
from StumbleUpon or Facebook; those sites send more dense traffic (and
have way less links overall)," says Eckler.
Currently Piccsy's top two referrers are StumbleUpon and
Facebook. Eckler believes Pinterest will overtake them both
before long. Its mobile app already seems more powerful than
Facebook's.
"Pinterest is our number three traffic driver," says
Eckler. "Pinterest Mobile drives about 20% of total
Pinterest traffic compared to Facebook mobile which drives
~8%."
At that rate, Eckler anticipates Pinterest will overtake Facebook
referral traffic within a few weeks, and he thinks it will become
the #1 Piccsy traffic driver by the end of the year.
"Piccsy likes eyeballs, and Pinterest provides a ton of them," he
says.
Here's a chart of the booming Pinterest referrals to Piccsy, by week. The chart probably closely reflects Pinterest's hockey stick growth curve.

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You've probably seen that recent string of commercials from Samsung bashing Apple fanboys. Well, this is what it was selling: the Samsung Galaxy Note, a massive smartphone with a 5.3-inch screen.
It's part tablet, part phone. But is it too big? Check out our hands-on video demonstration of this monster below.
Produced by Daniel Goodman
Don't Miss:
• WATCH: What Happens When You Drop This Tablet In A Tub Of Water?
• You Don't Have To Spend A Fortune To Get One Of Those Fancy 4G Phones
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Nokia and Microsoft will begin selling the Lumia 800, the first Nokia Phone to run Windows Phone 7, on Feb. 26 for $899 as part of a bundle.
The bundle includes the Nokia Lumia 800, a pair of Nokia HD headphones, a Bluetooth headset, and a Nokia Play external speaker for music. It'll only be available at Microsoft Stores.
The Lumia 800 is an unlocked phone that's normally sold overseas, but it will work in the U.S. if you're an AT&T customer. You'll just need to insert your SIM card.
The deal is pretty pricey, so we suggest waiting for the Nokia Lumia 900 to launch on AT&T. The 900 model will have a larger screen and run on AT&T's 4G LTE network for super fast data speeds. It's said to launch in mid-March and could be as cheap as $100 on contract.
Don't Miss: Hands-On Photos Of The Lumia 900
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Windows 8 is getting a new logo.
Gone is the colorful flag Windows users have known and loved (?) for more than 20 years.
In its place:

That blue thing? That's a window.
The change came about when Paula Scher from Pentagram -- a well known California design agency -- asked Microsoft, "Your name is Windows. Why are you a flag?"
It's actually pretty close to the very first Windows logo from way back in 1985:
But a far cry from the flag introduced back in the 1990s:
That flag has persisted in different forms all the way up through Windows Vista and Windows 7:
You can read all about the new logo, as well as look at some old classic Windows logos, on the Building Windows 8 blog.
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LivingSocial lost $558 million last year and its revenue came up to just $245 million, an Amazon filing with SEC revealed earlier this month.
We asked the daily deals site's CEO and co-founder Tim O'Shaughnessy to explain this seemingly alarming discrepancy at our Social Commerce Summit.
"The reason that we raised so much money was not to go and have it sit in bank," he said. "It was to go and build a moat and scale." LivingSocial raised $176 million in 2011.
Watch below O'Shaughnessy hint that the company's full financials will be revealed soon.
Produced by Kamelia Angelova, Robert Libetti and Jana Kasperkevic
Don't Miss: Here's The Secret To Making Money From Great Content >
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One of the hottest startups in Silicon Valley is not what you'd expect. It doesn't make iPhone apps or a new kind of database technology.
It's called Nest and it makes thermostats.
Cofounders Matt Rogers and Tony Fadell used to work at Apple on the iPod.
A couple of years ago, they came up with the idea that the thermostat on your wall is too hard to use, and doesn't provide enough easy ways to save money on energy. So they spent two years building and designing a new breed of thermostat—beautiful to look at, and easy to control from your mobile phone.
Best of all, Nest learns your energy usage habits and adjusts so you aren't blowing hot air throughout the house when nobody is home.
Nest launched last fall, and sales have been way higher than expected—the company has been continually selling out of all stock—and Nest has attracted fans like Google's Marissa Mayer.
It has also attracted the attention of the big guys. Last week, giant Honeywell sued Nest for patent infringement.
We caught up with cofounder Matt Rogers a couple days ago. He couldn't talk about the Honeywell suit for legal reasons, but here's what we learned:
Business Insider: So you guys sold out on
your first run. Did you expect that?
Matt Rogers: No we didn't actually. Once we
launched it, announced it and started shipping, I think we struck
a nerve with consumers and they saw the ugly thing on their wall
today and the opportunity they had to get a better product and we
have actually been, we have been continually selling out. So
within three days we ... were taking reservations. And the last
few months we have basically been filing off those reservation
lists. It has been actually incredible, like how many people have
been excited in buying the thermostat.
BI: What do you credit that to, is it design? And how did you get your message out across all the noise that's out there?
MR: So I mean, part of what gets people excited
is design and usability and having a great interface that's easy.
You shouldn't have to read a manual to figure out how to program
your thermostat or use it. And in terms of how we got the word
out, we did a lot of direct consumer conversations on social
media. We did a lot of outreach in terms of PR. We talked to
basically a lot of people and the more people we talked to the
more the word got out. It was very much a grassroots type of
campaign. We didn't do any advertising.
BI: How did you and Tony Fadell (the other
cofounder) ever decide that thermostats were a ripe area for
innovation?
MR: Tony and I, we met over lunch a long time
ago, probably almost 2 1/2 years ago at this point, and were
talking about what’s to come, what’s next. He had been building a
very eco-friendly house in Tahoe and we were talking about some
of the things going on there and the lack of innovation in the
thermostat space. It got us really excited and we said hey, we
built the iPod, what if we applied some of the great technology
and design principles to the thermostat? And we spent a few
months doing research and thinking about what that process would
be and we went off and did it and we spent about 18 months with
an amazing team building the product that we now have.
BI: Where do you even find people to work on that
technology? This isn't your typical Silicon Valley startup.
MR: We hired folks from all around the Valley;
from Apple, Microsoft, Google, from Twitter. People were excited to leave their jobs,
basically their dream jobs, to work on this thermostat. It's a
very impactful (sic) kind of product. Thermostats are responsible
for about half of energy use so it is a huge amount of impact you
could have.
BI: Was there a learning curve for these
people?
MR: For those that are working on, I would say,
the core thermostat part of the product, absolutely there was a
learning curve and we spent quite a bit of time basically getting
educated. We have an advisory board of heating and cooling
experts from all around the country who basically educated us
about this industry and about how the heating and cooling
actually works.
But most of us don't work on the heating and cooling part of the
product. We work on the mobile apps or the back-end servers or
the algorithms or the UI [user interface] and that's the kind of
techniques and technology that we used at Apple or at Google.
It's just like building a phone.
BI: How big is the company?
MR: We're about 100.
BI: Wow. Not exactly a lean startup.
MR: It takes a lot to build this kind of
product. To build just a great thermostat it was tough and then
when you add in all of the things in the ecosystem, it is the
whole company. We have to have manufacturing, we have a whole
team that does apps, we have a web presence. It takes quite a
bit.
BI: As you were planning the product and raising
money, did you ever get any pushback from the investment
community or your peers saying, "why are you making such an
un-sexy product?"
MR: Different answers to your two questions.
From friends or industry insiders, people that Tony and I know
and trust, we did get the question, "A thermostat? Really?" But
once we told them the story they got it.
Investors on the other hand totally got it. They had already been
looking for companies to innovate in this area when we started
and when we first did our first pitch, Randy
Komisar at KP said "we have been looking for a company to do
this forever. and I am so glad you're here."
BI: What do you guys do next? Are you planning
on improving the core product and what kinds of areas do you look
at to improve in?
MR: So there are a lot of areas where the
product that we ship today could be a lot better ... Immediately
we are looking next to "how do we better educate consumers about
energy use and what things could we do there?" Today we are
building a product that is a great tool to help consumers
conserve energy. If you teach Nest well, you will save energy but
how can we make that experience even better.
BI: Are you working at all with utilities?
MR: We have taken a different approach and we
have decided to go basically on our own. One of the things that
are very core to us is being a trusted ally of the consumer and
building a product that they want to invite us into their homes.
This is a product that they are going to hang on their wall and
interact with every day so the path we have gone down is 100
percent consumer product.
BI: What do you do about renters? There is a
sizable community, particularly in big cities, that don't own
their home. Do they install Nest?
MR: We have actually seen quite a few renters
buy Nest. They basically leave their thermostat on the wall and
find that if they are compatible that they can buy it and install
it there. It is a pretty low cost product that is helping them
save energy, especially if they are a long-term renter and they
are renting that house for years. I mean they will definitely see
their savings.
BI: So it is not a real problem for them talking
to the landlord.
MR: Exactly. It is not like you are getting a
meter installed or a big piece of infrastructure. You take the
one off the wall you have today, you plug a few wires into Nest,
and you are good to go. Most customers are really very much able
to do it themselves. The installations. We have online videos and all of those kinds of things.
BI: What about other products for the home? Or
other energy-saving products?
MR: Today we are very much focused on the
thermostat, improving that experience. Of course we are building
a company and companies are more than about one product but today
we are focused on the thermostat and doing that product really
well.
BI: Do you see a resurgence in green tech and
clean tech driven by consumers rather than the government and
subsidies?
MR: I don't really think it is a green tech
revolution kind of product. We are building a great product for
everybody, not just greenies. Everyone likes to save energy and
money in their home ... I don't know in terms of greater trends.
I don't see too many other companies doing things like we are
doing.
BI: You worked at Apple for almost 5 years. How
did working at Apple prepare you to work at a startup? And
specifically did it prepare you at all for working on this
totally new kind of startup?
MR: Apple is a unique kind of place in that
there is an exceptional amount of focus on the design and
details. At Apple we would go to the moon and back for saving one
millimeter off of the thinness on a device, and that kind of
stuff definitely prepared us for Nest. Those kinds of design
principles and diligence don't really exist anywhere else, and
that core focus I think is what helped Tony and I basically
design this thermostat. Everyone says they want to build
beautiful products and products like Apple but very few are
willing to put that time and energy, that focus in to do it.
BI: Do you see any other startups with the same
kind of focus on design?
MR: The guys at Path have done an exceptional job in reinventing
the user experience. I have been playing with that app recently
and they really have built an amazingly easy to use beautiful UI
and a great example of what a modern app can be.
BI: What about supply chain? That must be a big
deal for you guys, and Tim Cook is heralded as a genius on that
stuff.
MR: Absolutely, we have learned a ton from Apple
in terms of operations, supply chain management and how to get a
product built at high quality and at high volumes. That has been
a continual focus for us and where we spend a lot of our time
today is exactly on that.
BI: What did working at Apple
not prepare you for? What were the
surprises?
MR: Apple is this gigantic company with a lot of
resources and whenever we had something very difficult we always
could invest our way out of it. We could put really fancy laser
cutting equipment to make our metals and plastics or we could
hire another engineer to help get the product to completion. In a
startup you have it all, you have to do it. You can't just go
hire and build a bigger team. We have to be much more fiscally
responsible. Also there is no backup, whereas at Apple you always
could go call your buddies at the Mac team or in operations to
help out a project. At a startup you’re on your own. You do your
own backup.
BI: What is the weirdest thing you have had to
do? Any emergencies?
MR: We have had to do anything and everything to
the point. At one point I was even vacuuming the floor after we
have had some stuff spill. When it comes down to it, everyone,
the team here at Nest is willing to do anything it takes to get
this product done and to build it.
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The iPad may continue to win in the consumer market, but Windows 8 tablets will do better in enterprises.
That's because they will help meet rising demand from employees to use a tablet at work, while still pleasing IT directors worried about security and management, and purchasing directors worried about cost.
At leas that's the argument that former Microsoft developer Hal Berenson made this week.
The point of the blog post was quite different: Berenson was chiding longtime Windows developers who want to ignore tablets and just keep writing for the Windows desktop. As he put it, "You can whine all you want about Tablets being only (and barely suitable) for consumers, but when the VP of Retail decides she’s handing all 10,000 store associates Tablets you are going to be writing Tablet apps."
But along the way, he gave some very good arguments why companies will probably go with Windows 8 tablets over iPads:
No doubt, Microsoft will use these arguments when trying to sell Windows 8 tablets to enterprises, too.
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Pinterest is one of the fastest-growing web sites in history.
Launched about six months ago, the site already has more than 10 million monthly visitors and, among social networks, is ranked below only Facebook and Tumblr in terms of average time-spent-per-user per month.
But with massive growth comes major scrutiny.
Choire Sicha at The Awl brought up the question of whether Pinterest might be the most illegal network to hit the Internet yet. More illegal than Napster. More illegal than Megaupload.
Pinterest is a place where users upload photography – sometimes professional, copyrighted photography – that they found elsewhere on the Internet.
We talked to media law attorney Itai Maytal, who's an associate at Miller Korzenik Sommers LLP, to try and understand: Is Pinterest theft on a massive scale? Using what we learned from him, we've created an FAQ to try and answer this question.
Q: First off, what is Pinterest?
A: Pinterest is a social media site that involves "pinning" pictures you like to 'boards' that you create. Its users are heavily female — maybe as much as 95 percent.
Q: Sounds fun.
A: It is! People love the visual element. Because you can combine pictures from all over the web, as well as your own, and put them in one place, it's sort of like an interactive collage.
Q: But wait: You can use other peoples' photos?
A: Yes.
Q: Isn't that illegal?
A: It's not clear. Pinterest definitely allows users to post other photographers' work to the site. But it's not clear that this is illegal.
In its terms of use, Pinterest actually specifies that users shouldn't pin photos they don't own the rights to, a request that is being ignored to an absurd degree. Even if you link and attribute, that does NOT absolve you of the fact that you took someone else's work and re-appropriated it.
It's all about complying with the DMCA, or the Digital Millennium Copyright Act.
Q: That's how YouTube works, right?
A: On YouTube, you're only allowed to post videos you own the rights to. If a copyright holder sees that you posted one of his or her videos, YouTube will take it down upon complaint.
Q: But is it illegal?
A: Pinterest could be in Fair Use territory (meaning, legally protected). Fair Use law allows people to use work they do not own the copyright to. There are four elements to consider when determining if something is Fair Use:
The big one is that first question. If the use is transformative — if something new is being created by using the picture — then it can be construed as Fair Use.
One of the most famous cases of this, and one that Maytal pointed to as likely to be a major precedent, is Perfect 10 v. Google. A nude-image subscription service. Perfect 10 sued Google because Google's Image search showed pictures that Perfect 10 hid behind a paywall. It claimed that Google was doing it irreparable harm by showing the pictures in its search.
Google won the case. The courts ruled that Google Image search is Fair Use because it's transformative.
Maytal told us, "The use of the thumbnails was highly transformative, allowed users to get to a source of information that they couldn’t otherwise get." Google Image search becomes a social benefit and a reference tool.
Q: So how does Pinterest stack up in these Fair Use conditions?
A: Not well. On question 2, photography is inherently creative — photos are not facts — so that's a point against Pinterest. On question 3, Pinterest, in many cases, allows users to see photos from other sources in their full, original form on Pinterest's site. That's the work in its entirety.
On question 4, if users are able to see the work in its entirety, then they have no need to click through to see it at its source, potentially affecting the market. Also, even if you argue that Pinterest helps photographers or businesses sell products, that doesn't necessarily help.
Q: Isn't helping someone sell their stuff always good?
A: No. A case involving J.D. Salinger's attempt to stop his letters from being published established that a copyright holder always has the right to control the use of his work, even if that means he'll make less money.
Q: What about that first question, of whether Pinterest is transformative?
A: This will be the big issue, and what will likely determine Pinterest's legality. The fact that Pinterest isn't making any money yet definitely helps. Once it starts monetizing these pictures, it will become harder to argue that it's Fair Use.
Money isn't the biggest issue, though. The biggest issue is whether the use is a public service, or creates something new. Pinterest could potentially argue that it's a search or reference tool. But Google only provides thumbnails, which is transformative; you have to go to the original source to see the full picture. That's not the case with Pinterest, and that could be the killer.
Q: Couldn't Pinterest just take down the pictures that are infringement?
A: Yes, and they're supposed to. But they're not doing that. And the question of whether it's up to the service or the users to guard copyright is still being hashed out in the courts.
Q: How is this any different than Tumblr? I post stuff that isn't mine there all the time.
A: Good question! It's not really different. This could be an issue for Tumblr soon enough as well. The difference is that Pinterest seems designed almost entirely for the theft of others' copyrighted material, whereas Tumblr's a blogging service like any other on the Internet, just easier to use.
Q: So, is Pinterest illegal?
A: Quite possibly. Until there's a legal challenge against the site, it'll be hard to know. Pinterest could have some legitimate arguments in favor of itself: Claiming it's a search tool, saying it drives traffic elsewhere, arguing that the way it shows pictures is transformative.
But the big problem is that it grabs entire copyrighted works to re-post. This could be hard to overcome, especially as Pinterest starts growing and becomes more of a destination for a greater audience. The more time users spend on Pinterest, one assumes, the less likely they are to click out to other sites. And why click out when you can see the whole picture right there?
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