Feed: Cracked Sidewalks - AggScore: 86.3

Game-by-game, player-by-player match-ups on MU road to the Final Four, updated Value ratings

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To continue to build on Tim pointing out that four of our last five games are projected as 1-point affairs, and Alan’s projected MU bracket, I ran the Total Value calculations again for the Big East through tonight’s games. I also ran the numbers for all of the players on the six teams we would have to beat in the NCAA tournament to win the National Title.

Obviously the projected opponents will not match the actual Big East and NCAA tournaments, but the point is to get an idea of how Marquette’s 7-man rotation matches up against other 7-man rotations at every step of the tournament to see how possible a Big East title and deep NCAA run would be. The following is a quick summary of the 14 games that would get us there, followed by the Total Value rankings of Marquette’s top 7 as well as the top 7 of each of these team’s in our path:

at Uconn, computer says lose by 1
The teams look pretty even on Total Value if both healthy. Unfortunately it sounds like Davante (#28) may not be ready for Saturday, while Jeremy Lamb (#5, 6-foot-5) and Andre Drummond (#31, 6-foot-11) looked completely recovered against DePaul last night. Could be tough to get a third straight win at Connecticut.

vs. Rutgers, computer says win by 13
You can’t take any conference games for granted, but MU is the only Big East team besides Syracuse with five of the Top 50 players in the Big East, and Rutgers has only one (Dane Miller, #34, 6-foot-6).

at WVU, computer says lose by 1
Kevin Jones (#2, 6-foot-8) has dropped just below Jae Crowder in Total Value to rank as the 2nd best player in the Big East statistically. Darryl “Truck” Bryant (#38, 6-foot-2) is his only teammate in the Top 50 though. While Deniz Kilicli (#82, 6-foot-9) is a tough match-up inside, and it’s hard to beat Huggins at West Virginia, MU clearly has the better talent and could grab a road win.

At Cincy, computer says win by 1
While they don’t match MU, Sean Kilpatrick (#16, 6-foot4) has been close to DJO’s level statistically, and Cashmere Wright (#36, 6-foot-0) and Yancy Gates (#41, 6-foot-9) give them three that could certainly win at home.
I know the 16-point win looked good, but beware. Under Buzz, MU has played a team at the Bradley Center and away from the Bradley Center in the same year, and seven of those times there was more than a 16-point swing against MU (Nova 7 pt win at Bradley Center but 19-point loss on the road, Gtown 3-point win but 23-point loss, Providence 30-point win but 3-point win away, DePaul 21-point win after 1-point loss, Seton Hall 9-point win but 13-point loss, ND 22-point win but 5 pt loss and Norfolk State 31-point win but 2-point win).

Gtown, computer says win by 1
While they can’t match MU’s five players in the top 50, Georgetown has the best trio in the conference with three of the best 11 players (6-foot-2 Jason Clark #8, 6-foot-8 Hollis Thompson #9, 6-foot-8 Otto Porter #11), backed up by 6-foot-10 Henry Sims at #30. A serious threat to hand MU another senior day loss.

Big East Tournament Opener – Cincinnati, computer says win by 5
Right now it shapes up that MU, Notre Dame and Georgetown would get Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida in the third round. If Pomeroy were to play out, Cincinnati would win the tie-breaker for 5th seed, and Marquette would lose the tie-breaker to the other two to fall to 4th seed. We switch from Pomeroy to Sagarin for the predictions since you can use his numbers to predict match-ups not yet set, and MU comes in as a 5-point favorite vs. Cincy on a neutral court.

Syracuse, computer says lose by 5
People can say they are only seven deep, but when your top 7 are all in the top 32 of the conference, and 7-foot Fab Melo would rank higher than 29th if he hadn’t miss games, you are left with a tough but winnable Big East semifinal.

Georgetown, computer says lose by 1
See above on match-ups, but if MU were to get to Georgetown in a Big East final, Sagarin says we would come in as only 1-point underdogs. However, this would be MUs third game in three nights, and as I posted earlier this year, we have struggled mightily in those situations since we rely on such aggressive defense.

VCU #14 seed, computer says win by 6
We now shift to Alan’s projected bracket from Monday, which has MU as a #3 seed facing #14 seed VCU. The Rams have no one at the level of Crowder or DJO, but 6-foot-9 Juvonte Reddic would rate one spot ahead of Gardner at #28 if he played in the Big East, and they do have three other players in the Top 50. Coming off their Final Four run last year, certainly a nervous match-up, but one in which MU would have the clear talent edge.

Murray State #6 seed, computer says win by 7
With one bad loss playing in a very weak conference, Murray State has slipped from #7 in the country to a projected #6 seed. However, even after adjusting for competition, Isaiah Cannan would rank as the 4th best player in the Big East, and Donte Poole wouldn’t be far behind at #15. So they match up with our duo of DJO and Crowder, BUT at 6-foot-0 and 6-foot-3, the don’t pose the big inside threat. While 6-foot-7 Ed Daniel (#47 in the Big East) would rank pretty even with Vander Blue and Jamil Wilson, those two players are moving up the ranks pretty quickly, so basically MU would need to contain two great guards to win and go Sweet 16 for the second straight year.

Duke #2 seed, computer says lose by 2
This summer the Total Value system said Kentucky, Ohio State, North Carolina and Duke looked like the teams with the best shot at the Final Four, and Duke may have finally jumped in with the other three after the win at UNC. As explosive as they are, Duke is only the 73rd best defense in the country, and you can see below their defensive ratings really hold down their total value. However, in a matchup to try to go to the Elite 8, the big problem is that Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee would rank in the Top 10 among Big East players, and at 6-foot-11 and 6-foot-10 they would provide the same kind of nightmare scenario that we almost got through against the Lopez brothers at Stanford. With Austin Rivers (#37 if in Big East, 6-foot-4) lobbing it into them and 6-foot-10 Miles Plumlee (#27), MU would have to force them to play small to win.

Kentucky #1 seed, computer says lose by 7
I know we have the history on Kentucky, but Anthony Davis would rank as by far the Big East Player of the Year with an incredible 12.45% value to Kentucky. That means that that hypothetically MU could beat Kentucky 71-70 without Davis, that Davis’ presence would change the score to 75-67 Kentucky – a 9-point swing. Which is not to ignore the fact that Kentucky has three other players that would be in the Top 10 of the Big East. We’ve done a good job of getting opposing big men in foul trouble – that’s how Indiana beat Kentucky and MU could do the same.

Ohio State #1 seed, computer says lose by 8
Jared Sullinger was the preseason Player of the Year based on Total Value, and if he hadn’t battled injuries earlier he would be close to Davis for the honor. However, while the computer ranks OSU a slightly tougher game than Kentucky, when looking at the five top players of each – OSU is clearly not quite at the level of Kentucky. Even with the injuries, 6-foot-9 Sullinger would rank as the third best player in the Big East, and 6-foot-2 Aaron Craft isn’t far behind at #13.

Syracuse #1 seed, computer says lose by 5
And if we somehow ran the gauntlet and the other seeds played out in Alan’s bracket, that would leave MU playing Syracuse for the national title – and hoping for a repeat of the magic in Cleveland last year.

Below is a list of the top 7 players in the Total Value system for all of Marquette’s players as well as all of the opponents in this hypothetical run. The offensive figure is the percent the player increases his team’s scoring by over the course of the season, and the Def number is the percent of points he takes away from opponents. The Total Value is the combination of the two. For non-Big East players, a listed where they would rank if they played in the Big East.

rank	Player	Team	Ht	Off	Def	Total
1	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6-foot-6	5.65	-4.04	9.69
19	Darius Johnson-Odom	Marquette	6-foot-2	3.84	-0.64	4.47
28	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6-foot-8	2.88	-1.02	3.89
46	Vander Blue	Marquette	6-foot-4	1.34	-1.25	2.58
47	Jamil Wilson	Marquette	6-foot-7	1.66	-0.92	2.58
83	Todd Mayo	Marquette	6-foot-3	1.26	-0.07	1.33
91	Junior Cadougan	Marquette	6-foot-1	0.70	-0.40	1.10
5	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	6-foot-5	5.30	-0.99	6.29
15	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6-foot-0	3.64	-1.00	4.63
31	Andre Drummond	Connecticut	6-foot-11	1.41	-2.35	3.76
45	Ryan Boatright	Connecticut	6-foot-0	2.30	-0.43	2.72
65	Tyler Olander	Connecticut	6-foot-9	1.38	-0.49	1.87
98	Niels Giffey	Connecticut	6-foot-7	0.89	-0.03	0.92
103	DeAndre Daniels	Connecticut	6-foot-8	0.31	-0.55	0.86
34	Dane Miller	Rutgers	6-foot-6	0.95	-2.59	3.54
52	Myles Mack	Rutgers	5-foot-9	1.44	-0.96	2.40
70	Mike Poole	Rutgers	6-foot-5	0.26	-1.51	1.78
76	Eli Carter	Rutgers	6-foot-2	0.86	-0.62	1.48
79	Gilvydas Biruta	Rutgers	6-foot-8	0.53	-0.87	1.40
97	Jerome Seagears	Rutgers	6-foot-1	0.94	0.00	0.94
112	Derrick Randall	Rutgers	6-foot-8	0.31	-0.40	0.72
2	Kevin Jones	WestVirginia	6-foot-8	8.35	-1.28	9.63
38	Darryl Bryant	WestVirginia	6-foot-2	3.23	0.00	3.23
63	Jabarie Hinds	WestVirginia	5-foot-11	1.70	-0.25	1.95
82	Deniz Kilicli	WestVirginia	6-foot-9	1.02	-0.34	1.36
89	Gary Browne	WestVirginia	6-foot-1	0.34	-0.80	1.13
93	Aaron Brown	WestVirginia	6-foot-5	0.99	0.00	0.99
95	Kevin Noreen	WestVirginia	6-foot-10	0.87	-0.10	0.97
16	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6-foot-4	3.84	-0.78	4.62
36	Cashmere Wright	Cincinnati	6-foot-0	1.88	-1.49	3.37
41	Yancy Gates	Cincinnati	6-foot-9	1.90	-1.10	3.01
51	Dion Dixon	Cincinnati	6-foot-3	2.12	-0.36	2.48
60	Jaquon Parker	Cincinnati	6-foot-3	1.69	-0.37	2.06
62	Justin Jackson	Cincinnati	6-foot-8	0.31	-1.68	2.00
104	Kelvin Gaines	Cincinnati	6-foot-10	0.00	-0.81	0.81
8	Jason Clark	Georgetown	6-foot-2	3.54	-2.33	5.87
9	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	6-foot-8	4.29	-1.34	5.63
11	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6-foot-8	2.74	-2.71	5.44
30	Henry Sims	Georgetown	6-foot-10	1.76	-2.03	3.79
57	Nate Lubick	Georgetown	6-foot-8	1.26	-1.03	2.29
64	Markel Starks	Georgetown	6-foot-2	1.88	0.00	1.88
77	Jabril Trawick	Georgetown	6-foot-5	0.99	-0.45	1.44
3	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	6-foot-7	4.45	-1.97	6.42
7	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.53	-2.50	6.03
24	Brandon Triche	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.06	-1.11	4.17
25	C.J. Fair	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.44	-1.73	4.16
27	James Southerland	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.19	-1.85	4.03
29	Fab Melo	Syracuse	7-foot-0	1.67	-2.20	3.87
32	Scoop Jardine	Syracuse	6-foot-2	2.29	-1.38	3.67
28	Juvonte Reddic	VCU	6-foot-9	2.03	-2.00	4.02
30	Bradford Burgess	VCU	6-foot-6	3.01	-0.80	3.81
36	Briante Weber	VCU	6-foot-3	0.78	-2.67	3.45
42	Troy Daniels	VCU	6-foot-4	2.21	-0.72	2.94
74	Darius Theus	VCU	6-foot-3	1.29	-0.33	1.62
77	Treveon Graham	VCU	6-foot-5	0.86	-0.60	1.46
93	D.J. Haley	VCU	7-foot-0	0.19	-0.83	1.02
4	Isaiah Canaan	MurraySt.	6-foot-0	6.22	-0.17	6.39
15	Donte Poole	MurraySt.	6-foot-3	3.10	-1.54	4.64
47	Ed Daniel	MurraySt.	6-foot-7	1.17	-1.41	2.58
72	Ivan Aska	MurraySt.	6-foot-7	1.30	-0.38	1.68
72	Jewuan Long	MurraySt.	6-foot-1	1.70	0.00	1.70
87	Latreze Mushatt	MurraySt.	6-foot-5	0.00	-1.23	1.23
113	Stacy Wilson	MurraySt.	6-foot-3	0.36	-0.33	0.70
9	Ryan Kelly	Duke	6-foot-11	4.64	-1.16	5.80
9	Mason Plumlee	Duke	6-foot-10	3.29	-2.51	5.79
22	Seth Curry	Duke	6-foot-2	4.00	-0.38	4.38
27	Miles Plumlee	Duke	6-foot-10	2.76	-1.33	4.10
37	Austin Rivers	Duke	6-foot-4	3.27	0.00	3.27
39	Andre Dawkins	Duke	6-foot-4	3.19	0.00	3.19
60	Quinn Cook	Duke	6-foot-0	2.10	0.00	2.10
1	Anthony Davis	Kentucky	6-foot-10	6.85	-5.60	12.45
7	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Kentucky	6-foot-7	3.48	-2.44	5.92
9	Doron Lamb	Kentucky	6-foot-4	5.62	-0.12	5.74
10	Terrence Jones	Kentucky	6-foot-9	2.87	-2.68	5.55
36	Darius Miller	Kentucky	6-foot-8	3.15	-0.36	3.51
74	Marquis Teague	Kentucky	6-foot-2	1.14	-0.46	1.59
80	Kyle Wiltjer	Kentucky	6-foot-9	1.17	-0.23	1.40
3	Jared Sullinger	OhioSt.	6-foot-9	5.23	-3.60	8.82
13	Aaron Craft	OhioSt.	6-foot-2	2.51	-2.50	5.01
22	Deshaun Thomas	OhioSt.	6-foot-7	4.34	0.00	4.34
26	William Buford	OhioSt.	6-foot-6	3.09	-1.05	4.14
34	Lenzelle Smith	OhioSt.	6-foot-4	1.91	-1.66	3.57
83	Evan Ravenel	OhioSt.	6-foot-8	0.70	-0.64	1.34
86	Amir Williams	OhioSt.	6-foot-11	0.45	-0.83	1.28
	Other Top 20 Big East	Team	Ht	Off	Def	Total
4	Jack Cooley	NotreDame	6-foot-9	4.39	-1.99	6.38
6	Gorgui Dieng	Louisville	6-foot-10	2.41	-3.67	6.08
10	Fuquan Edwin	SetonHall	6-foot-6	1.63	-3.83	5.46
12	Jerian Grant	NotreDame	6-foot-5	4.76	-0.51	5.27
13	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6-foot-1	4.91	0.00	4.91
14	Herb Pope	SetonHall	6-foot-8	1.67	-3.05	4.72
17	Maalik Wayns	Villanova	6-foot-2	4.54	0.00	4.54
18	Chris Smith	Louisville	6-foot-2	3.72	-0.81	4.53
20	Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	6-foot-2	4.47	0.00	4.47

CS Bracket Feb 13

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The bracket is starting to solidify itself as we are less than a month away from Selection Sunday. Kentucky and Syracuse both seem like near-locks for 1-seeds. Missouri has moved up to the 1-line as well. While they have a weak non-conference SOS, wins over Baylor and Kansas while only suffering 2 losses make the Tigers impossible to ignore, though it may be to their detriment, as the last 1-seed will almost certainly play out West, which prevents Mizzou from a near-home game in St. Louis. Ohio State is the last team on the top line.




In terms of bids, the Big Ten leads the way with 9 bids, as Northwestern moves into the field. Again the Big East is one back with 8 bids. The SEC and Big 12 both have 5, the A-10, Mountain West, and ACC have 4 apiece, the West Coast and C-USA each get 3, and the Missouri Valley has 2.

The last 4 byes went to Purdue, Xavier, Illinois, and Dayton. The last 4 teams in the field are Minnesota, Colorado State, Iowa State, and UCF. The lowest RPI for an at-large team is Dayton at 71 while the lowest Pomeroy rating is Colorado State at 109.

The first four teams out are Miami, Mississippi, Wyoming, and Texas. The next four teams out are NC State, Arizona, Mississippi, and Cincinnati. The highest RPI snub is St. Joseph's at 48. The highest Pomeroy snub is Texas at 23.

For Marquette, I think this is the best bracket so far. While VCU may have magic left in those slippers, the real hope is for Marquette to either expose Murray State or reacquaint themselves with Rick Majerus in the second round. While the expected marquee match-up in the Southeast would be Kentucky v Duke, Marquette could crash that party. While it may not be the easiest path (that goes to Syracuse's paved road to the Final Four) it would be a road Marquette could successfully travel.

And at the bottom...it's a very soft bubble again. I look at teams like Iowa State, Colorado State, UCF, Texas, and Miami and there's very little difference, except that all of them look more like NIT teams than they do NCAA teams. For that matter, I'm not overly impressed with some of the higher seeds, as Seton Hall looks nothing like a 10-seed, West Virginia's 10 losses are too many to be in the field right now (yet they were an easy inclusion), and it baffles me how the slumps of teams like Xavier, Illinois, and Dayton haven't cost them bids yet.

I will be continuing to update this periodically in the thread at MUScoop. I still plan to do a weekly bracket, but for mid-week updates, check out the thread on the Scoop.

Tossups and white knucklers

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With a convincing win over Cincinnati on Saturday, Marquette moved to 21-5 on the season and a gaudy 10-3 record in the Big East. Despite devastating injuries to their front line, Buzz Williams' crew has run off nine wins in their last ten games, the program's best stretch since joining the Big East.

The latest Pomeroy numbers pulled MU up to #19 with a projected final record of 24-7 overall and 13-5 in Big East play. With a week to prepare for the next game, a roadie at UConn, this sounds reasonable given the current pace, no?

However, a closer look at the final five games shows that the Warriors are heading into the most uncertain stretch of the season. Four of the last five games are toss-ups per Pomeroy, who currently predicts four one-point games in the season's final two weeks.

• Loss @ UConn, 71-70 (49% certainty)
• Win vs. Rutgers, 75-62 (87% certainty)
• Loss @ WVU, 74-73 (49% certainty)
• Win @ Cincy, 71-70 (50% certainty)
• Win vs. Georgetown 67-66 (55% certainty)

The toss-ups are punctuated by three road games including back-to-back tilts against West Virginia and Cincinnati. Marquette has handled itself very well on the road this season, claiming three conference wins away from home to go with its signature road over the Badgers in December and a handful of neutral site wins.

While the KenPom numbers say 'tossup' there is more reason for optimism than not even though MU has a depleted roster at this point. Counting the road game at Villanova, MU has reeled off wins in four of the last five. This stretch corresponds to the Davante Garnder injury which many thought could derail the season, but ultimately saw MU once again demonstrate the fortitude that has long characterized the program.

Marquette was already one of the smaller teams in the nation prior to Gardner's injury. In addition, there was also the very real concern about the loss of Gardner’soffensive repertoire, one of the most efficient on the team and in the Big East.

Still, despite the vertically-challenged roster, opponents' height, quality and defensive efficiency have largely not mattered as Williams' crew has shown a great capacity for adjustment and improvement throughout the season.

For example when the Warriors hosted Seton Hall, the 63rd tallest team in the nation and one of the Big East's top defensive units, the Pirates only mustered a 43.7% eFG which was better than MU’s defensive average for the season. Marquette also tuned up the Pirates delivering 1.18 point per possession (ppp) in the decisive second half while holding SHU to just 0.83. (*note that 1.00 is the normalized average).

On Saturday the Warriors hung 95 points on the Bearcats thanks to an eye-popping 1.35 ppp against one of the conference's better defenses. Marquette shot 62.5% eFG% against an opponent that typically allows 0.91 ppp and 45.8%, respectively. And the Warriors held UC to just 0.92 ppp in the first half ... all the more remarkable considering that Cincy roared out to a 16-4 lead.

Obviously, this team is still improving despite the injury bug -- and in more areas than expected. In our Tweet stream on Saturday, Rob noted that MU’s turnover rate was 10% against Cincinnati --- the third-straight game with with elite ball protection (12.5%, 12.5%, 10%).

Tossups or not – Gardner or not -- MU will be a tough out in these last five games thanks to a deep, talented rotation and sound strategies on both sides of the ball which ultimately run well with just about any roster combination coach Buzz Williams chooses.

Cincinnati grabs 48% offensive rebounds tonight in tune-up for showdown that could determine if they or MU get crucial double bye

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UConn’s sixth loss Monday and West Virginia’s sixth loss tonight gives MU a three-game lead over them in the loss column as MU gets closer and closer to its first ever Top 4 finish. That leaves three teams at 7-4 and tied in 5th place, but with MU already having the tie-breaker due to beating two of them (Louisville and South Florida), that just leaves Cincinnati.

The most important thing that can happen the rest of the season is that Marquette finishes ahead of Cincinnati, because if we do there is a very good chance we will be somewhere in the Top 4. A win Saturday and MU has the tie-breaker and lead or a three game lead over every team who could knock them out of the top 4. A loss and Cincinnati has the inside track – pulling within a half game of MU with the tie-breaker and a game left against MU in Cincinnati.

The following is a breakdown of the Big East standings with current records, and which remaining games a team is favored in (66% of better chance of winning), as well as which are toss-ups (33% to 66% chance).

Team	Current	Favored/if win all	Toss-up/if win all	Underdog/if win all	MU have tie-breaker?
Syracuse	11-1	Con,atRut,SF,Lou (15)	atLou,atCon (17)	None (17)	No
Marquette	9-3	Cin,Rut (11)	atCon,atWV,atCin,Geo (15)	None (15)	N/A
Notre Dame	8-3	DeP,Rut,Pro (11)	atVil,WV,atStJ (14)	atGeo (15)	No
Georgetown	8-4	StJ,atPro,Vil,ND (12)	atSH,atMar (14)	None (14)	No?
Louisville	7-4	atDeP,SF (9)	atWV,Syr,atCin,Pit (13)	AtSyr (14)	Yes
S. Florida	7-4	(7)	atPro,Vil,Cin,WV (11)	atPit,atSyr,atLou (14)	Yes
Cincinnati	7-4	Pro (7)	SH,Lou,atSF,Mar,atVil (12)	atMar (13)	?
West Virginia	6-6	DeP (7)	Lou,atPit,atND,Mar,atSF (12)	None (12)	?
UConn	5-6	DeP (6)	Mar,atVil,Syr,atPro,Pit (11)	atSyr (12)	?

So if every team won only the games they are favored in, then MU finishes fourth (Syracuse 15 wins, Georgetown 12, Notre Dame 11 and head-to-head over MU, MU 11, then Louisville in 5th with 9.

If every team won all of their toss-ups (can't actually all do it since they play each other, but just to give an idea), then MU would finish 2nd place (Syracuse 17 wins, MU 15, ND and Georgetown 14 and Louisville 13.

Both sound great. But if Yancy Gates plays like he did tonight (6 of 8 field goals and 5 offensive rebounds in only 21 minutes for the 76-54 blowout at St. John’s) and Gardner is still out, the Bearcats could pull the upset and alter the entire forecast for the season.

Cincy is solid, and Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright have actually been their best two players, but Yancy is always the guy with the potential to breakout and give them a deadly three players. Three other players give them a very solid 6-man rotation in Dion Dixon, Jaquon Parker and 6-foot-8 Justin Jackson.

When I picked Georgetown and Cincinnati as my two surprise teams in the Big East during the preseason, my logic was that Yancy Gates was finally showing signs of dominating.

Theoretically MU could finish as low as 11th in the Big East, but that would entail being passed by Seton Hall (Magic number is 2 – meaning any two MU wins or Seton Hall losses mean the Pirates can no longer catch us), and a win by MU Saturday would eliminante St. John’s , Pitt, Rutgers, and Nova from having even a mathematical chance of catching us. DePaul and Providence cannot catch us mathematically.

I get much more nervous about games like this when we have a lot to lose against a team we are favored against but that certainly has the ability for the upset. When we play at Syracuse or Georgetown, I believe we are playing with house money. This is a game Marquette has to win – it could determine if we finish in the Top 4 or not.

Underclassmen’s dominant performances Monday could indicate a great present (March Madness) and future (winning new Big East)

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The support class that emerged Monday night to turn a 12-point deficit into a 13-point win gives great hope for March Madness this year, and even more for just how far the program could go in the future Big East that we learned yesterday would include Memphis.

Junior Cadougan had 8 more assists Monday to make Marquette the 3rd best assist team in the country (65.7% of all baskets off of assists), while the ESPN crew discussed whether Jae Crowder OR DJO had the better shot at being player of the year in the Big East. DJO is on the Wooden List as one of the Top 25 candidates for national Player of the Year, while Crowder is statistically superior to everyone else in the conference except perhaps Kevin Jones.

But with no other junior or senior on the team, Monday’s performance may have shown the true potential for a run this year, as well as brimming optimism over the future of the program in the new Big East. Even if you drop the great performances by Junior, DJO and Crowder Monday and just look at the stats from four other players – then throw in Davante Gardner’s stats from his last game before the injury, you end up with an incredible box score:

Freshman & Sophs	MIN	FGM	FGM	FTM	FTA	REB	PTS
Jamil Wilson, F	39	8	11	2	2	10	18
Vander Blue, G	23	5	10	6	6	3	16
Todd Mayo, G	17	2	4	2	2	0	6
Derrick Wilson, G	7	1	1	-	-	0	2
Davante Gardner, F	24	5	7	5	9	7	15
Total	110	21	33	15	19	20	57

When you run the math on all of the stats for these five (including turnovers, etc.) the math suggests that they would have used 38 possessions to scored their 57, thus averaging about 1.5 points per trip on their 64% shooting from the floor and 79% from the line.

On the defensive end, Jamil added two blocked shots and two steals, and all three guards played phenomenal defense. Granted, Gardner is still weak overall on the defensive end, but with the other four playing that kind of defense, just having the big body to put on someone and grab some rebounds could make this a very strong defensive team.

That’s in 110 minutes, folks, with those five only using 38 possessions out of the typical 70 trips a game MU takes down the court. That means you could have DJO, Crowder and Junior average an easy 30 minutes between them and even if they were all off a little and just scored 32 points in the 32 trips that one of the three of them used the possession, that’s 89 points and an awfully impressive defensive performance. If the three of them play just average games with the five above doing that, and MU may score 100.

While a tournament foe would be tougher than DePaul and hold these numbers down some, there would only be a couple of teams in the country who would have a chance against MU with that kind of performance.

MU could run up future Big East titles

And with the announcement today that Memphis will be joining the Big East, that paints an even better picture for life in the future Big East.

Most of the time, players get substantially better every year, so if those five put up numbers at least that good in two years, then any combination of contributions from potential superstar Deonte Burton, Aaron Durley, Steve Taylor, Jamal Ferguson, TJ Taylor, Juan Anderson, Jake Thomas, Jamail Jones and possibly even a medical red shirt Chris Otule could easily have Marquette atop the Big East in two years.

At which point you may ask, “yes, but will winning the Big East be a big deal in two years?” For argument’s sake, let’s say that now that Rick Pitino has gotten his first wish and Memphis is joining, that he gets his other wish and Temple is the final addition.

If we look at the new conferences in two years under those scenarios using Pomeroy’s current ratings, the Big East still looks great. As the Table below shows, the Big East and the Big Ten would be the only two conferences with eight Top 50 teams. Taking the best 12 teams in each conference, the Big East and Big Ten would easily be the top two conferences, with an average projected winning percentage of 0.817 and 0.812 respectively.

2014 Conf	Top 10 teams	Top 50	Ave. best 12
Big 10	OSU, Wis, MSU, Ind	8	0.817
Big East	None-Gtown 13th	8	0.812
SEC	Kent, Missouri	5	0.785
ACC	Syr., UNC	5	0.798
Big 12	Kan, Bayl	6	0.759
MWC	None-N. Mex 11th	2	0.713
MVC	None-Wich St 16th	2	0.653
A10	None-St. L 12th	2	0.652
Pac 12	None-Cal 21st	2	0.647
CUSA	None-S.Miss 44th	1	0.639

Yes, the conference would lack a Top 10 program, and some would criticize the size and some weak teams at the bottom, but overall I believe the Big East has done a very good job with the very poor hand they were dealt, and I believe there is an outstanding chance that Marquette will be an excellent program competing for the top of a very good conference for years to come.

SMU and Houston will need to really step up their basketball programs, which they may do with the move, but the conference would be strong. The following are the current ratings of 18 conference members in two years if Temple were to join, and there were no other changes by then:

2014 Conference Member	Pomeroy Rnk
Georgetown	13
Marquette	20
Louisville	26
Memphis	29
Temple	38
Connecticut	39
Notre Dame	47
Cincinnati	50
Seton Hall	69
Villanova	80
Central Florida	97
Rutgers	101
South Florida	113
Providence	117
St. John's	140
DePaul	173
Southern Methodist	203
Houston	209

Horace Grant's nephew (Jerian), best first-year player in BE and 13th best overall, has let ND overcome Abromaitis injury

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I just updated the Value Add rankings, and Marquette’s trip to Notre Dame tomorrow at Noon could have been a battle for MVP of the Big East except for Tim Abromaitis injury.

Jae Crowder has just nudged ahead of Kevin Jones for top player of the year by a microscopic margin (10.4% to 10.3% improvement to team’s scores) to far out distance 3rd place Jeremy Lamb (6.8%). But when I look at the rankings I did of returning Big East players this summer, you have to believe Abromaitis could well have been the top player this year except for the season-ending injury:

Preseason Total Value
1. Ashton Gibbs, Pittsburgh (forced to play PG, current #21)
2. Tim Abromaitis, Notre Dame (injured for year)
3. Jae Crowder, Marquette (current #1)
4. Kyle Kuric, Louisville (missed couple of games, current #23)
5. Kevin Jones, West Virginia (current #2)
6. Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut (current #3)

The fact is that Notre Dame looked like a middle of the conference team WITH Abromaitis, lost their potential MVP, and is still 4th place in the Big East and is on fire coming off wins against then No. 1 Syracuse and on the road vs. Seton Hall and UConn. While we'd certainly like to see Buzz grab Coach of the Year, it would be hard to by-pass Mike Brey going into the Noon showdown with Marquette.

If Davante Gardner is out tomorrow, the Irish may be a slight favorite in part due to having the 2nd best big guy (6-foot-9 or taller) in the Big East based on Total Value:

Players 6-foot-9 or taller in Top 50 of Big East
4 Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
10 Jack Cooley, Notre Dame
25 Andre Drummond, Connecticut
30 Henry Sims, Georgetown
38 Mouphtaou Yarou, Villanova
41 Yancy Gates, Cincinnati

While that presents a match-up problem, the reason that Notre Dame is in 4th place in the Big East and on the verge of being ranked is that a 3-star freshman, Jerian Grant, is the 13th Best Player in the Big East. Like Marquette’s surprisingly strong performance from another 3-star, Todd Mayo, the 6-foot-5 Grant certainly had the lineage to suggest future greatness.

Grant's dad was Harvey Grant, who strung together a decade long-career (Bullets, Trail Blazers and 76ers), and his uncle and dad’s twin Horace Grant has NBA rings from the Bulls and Lakers. However, no one expected the 105th best recruit in the land to play 86% of Notre Dame’s minutes his first year, while being among Pomeroy’s leaders in assists and low turnovers, and hitting a cool 37% from behind the arc in almost 100 attempts. When I compared preseason rankings to rankings right now, Grant ranked as the biggest surprise in the Big East – almost enough to offset the Abromaitis injury as the biggest disappointment. While most of the 150 players are within 25 spots of their summer projection, here are the 10 players who have exceeded their expectations by the widest margin with their projected rank and actual rank to date:

Surprise	Proj	Actual	First name	Lname	Team
1	NR	13	Jerian	Grant	NotreDame
2	NR	36	LaDontae	Henton	Providence
3	NR	43	Russ	Smith	Louisville
4	112	17	Herb	Pope	SetonHall
5	118	31	Toarlyn	Fitzpatrick	SouthFlorida
6	123	37	Fab	Melo	Syracuse
7	109	34	Dane	Miller	Rutgers
8	119	48	Vander	Blue	Marquette
9	69	9	Fuquan	Edwin	SetonHall
10	82	35	Lamar	Patterson	Pittsburgh
19	46	19	Davante	Gardner	Marquette

Abromaitis would give Notre Dame three of the top 14 players in the conference, but even without him Notre Dame matches up almost even with a Gardner-less Marquette if you go through the best eight players from both teams – and Notre Dame averages exactly 3 inches taller per spot (6-foot-3 5/8” to 6-foot-6 5/8”):

BE	Rnk	Marquette	BE	Rnk	Notre Dame	Height
1	Jae	Crowder	10	Jack	Cooley	6-6 vs. 6-9
16	Darius	Johnson-Odom	13	Jerian	Grant	6-2 vs. 6-5
48	Vander	Blue	62	Eric	Atkins	6-4 vs. 6-1
53	Jamil	Wilson	79	Scott	Martin	6-7 vs. 6-8
77	Todd	Mayo	87	Pat	Connaughton	6-3 vs. 6-5
89	Junior	Cadougan	91	Alex	Dragicevich	6-1 vs. 6-6
122	Derrick	Wilson	106	Tom	Knight	6-0 vs. 6-10
125	Jamail	Jones	108	Mike	Broghammer	6-6 vs. 6-9

The good news is that since January 24, Crowder (big jump to pass Jones for 1st), DJO (from 24th to 16th) and Blue (from 55th to 48th) are all shooting up in the rankings, the bad news is that Grant is too (from 23rd to 13th), so he is on the verge of earning All-Big East consideration in his first season.

Also as covered in the past, while the offensive Value Add is precise, you can make a 1% subjective adjustment within a team for the “team defensive stops” calculation, and if you do so with Marquette I believe it’s safe to drop Davante Gardner from his calculated 19th to 32nd, while raising Blue from his current 48th to 34th.

Biggest Disappointments
On the flip side of the nice surprises, below are the biggest 10 disappointments. While Abromaitis, through no fault of his own, is the biggest disappointment, he is followed closely by UConn's Alex Oriakhi who was benched the year after being the inside power for the NCAA title run and has been terrible. The third biggest disappointment is Providence's Kadeem Batts, whose academic problems cost him the first semester of his sophomre year after a very promising freshman campaign - but he is working to redeem himself on the court now.

Proj	Act	First name	Lname	Team
2	Inj	Tim	Abromaitis	NotreDame
8	114	Alex	Oriakhi	Connecticut
36	150	Kadeem	Batts	Providence
33	142	Roscoe	Smith	Connecticut
17	94	Khem	Birch	Pittsburgh
23	97	Cleveland	Melvin	DePaul
38	99	Shaun	Noriega	SouthFlorida
14	67	Gilvydas	Biruta	Rutgers
32	75	Peyton	Siva	Louisville
21	59	Dante	Taylor	Pittsburgh

Overall, 59 of the almost 200 players in the Big East have improved their team's overall scores this year by at least 2%. And while Crowder and Jones are clearly the best two players in the league by this measurement, I do want to make sure everyone knows I will be THRILLED if Darius Johnson-Odom wins the Big East player of the year. He is doing what he did last year at an even higher level - saving his dominant play for the big conference and (hopefully) tournament games.

While DJO is 16th in Total Value to date, he is shooting up rapidly and my only hope is that having two incredible seniors doesn't divide their votes for Big East honors after the year. With the way Blue has taken it to another level the last two games, and Gardner has been dominant on offense, we could easily have the three-and-half stars that Al McGuire said it took to win a title - particularly when you look at how strong we are down the entire bench.

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Off	Def	Total
1	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6-foot-6	5.64	-4.40	10.04
2	Kevin Jones	WestVirginia	6-foot-8	8.22	-1.81	10.03
3	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	6-foot-5	5.81	-0.96	6.77
4	Gorgui Dieng	Louisville	6-foot-10	2.66	-3.62	6.28
5	Jason Clark	Georgetown	6-foot-2	3.82	-2.38	6.20
6	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	6-foot-8	4.58	-1.50	6.07
7	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	6-foot-7	4.11	-1.86	5.97
8	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.23	-2.61	5.83
9	Fuquan Edwin	SetonHall	6-foot-6	1.98	-3.68	5.66
10	Jack Cooley	NotreDame	6-foot-9	3.64	-1.81	5.46
11	Maalik Wayns	Villanova	6-foot-2	5.15	0.00	5.15
12	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6-foot-4	3.96	-1.12	5.08
13	Jerian Grant	NotreDame	6-foot-5	4.40	-0.61	5.01
14	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6-foot-8	2.22	-2.74	4.96
15	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6-foot-0	3.98	-0.94	4.92
16	Darius Johnson-Odom	Marquette	6-foot-2	3.75	-1.01	4.75
17	Herb Pope	SetonHall	6-foot-8	1.67	-3.07	4.74
18	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6-foot-1	4.72	0.00	4.72
19	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6-foot-8	3.27	-1.32	4.59
20	Brandon Triche	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.46	-1.11	4.57
21	Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	6-foot-2	4.56	0.00	4.56
22	Moe Harkless	St.John's	6-foot-8	1.58	-2.96	4.54
23	Kyle Kuric	Louisville	6-foot-4	3.11	-1.34	4.46
24	D'Angelo Harrison	St.John's	6-foot-3	3.70	-0.76	4.45
25	Andre Drummond	Connecticut	6-foot-11	2.11	-2.17	4.28
26	James Southerland	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.49	-1.73	4.22
27	Jordan Theodore	SetonHall	6-foot-0	3.35	-0.72	4.07
28	C.J. Fair	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.24	-1.64	3.88
29	Chris Smith	Louisville	6-foot-2	3.30	-0.54	3.85
30	Henry Sims	Georgetown	6-foot-10	1.72	-2.08	3.80
31	Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	SouthFlorida	6-foot-8	2.02	-1.74	3.76
32	Scoop Jardine	Syracuse	6-foot-2	2.44	-1.28	3.72
33	Cashmere Wright	Cincinnati	6-foot-0	2.09	-1.44	3.53
34	Dane Miller	Rutgers	6-foot-6	0.78	-2.65	3.43
35	Lamar Patterson	Pittsburgh	6-foot-5	2.96	-0.34	3.30
36	LaDontae Henton	Providence	6-foot-6	2.84	-0.41	3.25
37	Fab Melo	Syracuse	7-foot-0	1.13	-2.12	3.25
38	Mouphtaou Yarou	Villanova	6-foot-10	2.59	-0.60	3.19
39	Darryl Bryant	WestVirginia	6-foot-2	3.19	0.00	3.19
40	Dominic Cheek	Villanova	6-foot-6	3.12	0.00	3.12
41	Yancy Gates	Cincinnati	6-foot-9	1.78	-1.29	3.07
42	Nasir Robinson	Pittsburgh	6-foot-5	3.05	0.00	3.05
43	Russ Smith	Louisville	6-foot-0	0.26	-2.74	3.00
44	Brandon Young	DePaul	6-foot-3	2.97	0.00	2.97
45	Ron Anderson	SouthFlorida	6-foot-8	2.71	-0.19	2.90
46	Dion Dixon	Cincinnati	6-foot-3	1.96	-0.76	2.72
47	Hugh Robertson	SouthFlorida	6-foot-6	1.98	-0.65	2.63
48	Vander Blue	Marquette	6-foot-4	0.82	-1.65	2.47
49	Tray Woodall	Pittsburgh	5-foot-11	2.43	0.00	2.43
50	Myles Mack	Rutgers	5-foot-9	1.54	-0.84	2.38
51	Bilal Dixon	Providence	6-foot-9	1.50	-0.80	2.31
52	Jaquon Parker	Cincinnati	6-foot-3	1.96	-0.33	2.30
53	Jamil Wilson	Marquette	6-foot-7	1.23	-1.03	2.25
54	Chane Behanan	Louisville	6-foot-7	0.37	-1.88	2.25
55	Jeremiah Kelly	DePaul	6-foot-0	2.17	0.00	2.17
56	Baye Keita	Syracuse	6-foot-10	1.24	-0.87	2.12
57	God'sgift Achiuwa	St.John's	6-foot-8	2.07	0.00	2.07
58	Talib Zanna	Pittsburgh	6-foot-9	2.02	0.00	2.02
59	Dante Taylor	Pittsburgh	6-foot-9	1.66	-0.34	2.00

Aged Whine

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We welcome back another guest post by Dr. Blackheart.  In this version, he looks at the role experience plays in winning percentage, analyzes the experience of the Big East in comparison to previous years, and then peeks at MU (and the rest of the league) using experience.  It's yet another great writeup.

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There has been a lot of fan and media attention around the down year for Big East basketball this season.  Pretty much every rating service, whether Pomeroy, Nolan, Real Time RPI, Colley or others, has the Big East Conference as only the third best conference overall.  “The Fall of the Mighty Big East” seems to be a popular theme for the critics and pundits with all the surprise outcomes and the up and down games.  Adding to the hype is all the drama around conference defections and realignment, and talk about the end of an era.
Likewise, MU fandom is equally perplexed about the team’s major scoring droughts at the start of games or halves.  Last season was about the incredible number of nail biter games decided in the last possession(s).  This season, the theme seems to be digging out of a hole to China.  Fan sentiment is equally as uneasy, despite a great Big East start for Marquette, and now major injuries are creeping in to an already limited depth team to add to the “Golden Eagle Angst Rating” (or GEAR).

As a result, I decided to put on the scuba GEAR and take a deep statistical dive to find out exactly what the heck is going on.  Chaos can be modeled after all.

Looking at various factors in Pomeroy going back in time, the one factor that stood out was “Experience”.  Pomeroy (who started measuring “Experience” in the 2006-07 season) defines this measure as:  “Uses eligibility class, weighted by minutes played.  A freshman has no years of experience, a sophomore has one year of experience, etc.”  Here is what I initially found in terms of on-court performance over the past six Big East seasons based upon segments of experience:

• More experienced teams win more in Big East play by fifteen-plus percentage points, and by ten-plus percentage points for the total season.  This just confirms in numbers a pretty obvious fan conventional wisdom, especially in the tough grinder that is the Big East.
• Sixty-nine percent of the inexperienced teams had .500 or less BE seasons, confirming that experience can trump young potential.
• Only six of the average to more experienced teams had overall losing total season records.
• While the correlation of experience to winning is positive, it isn’t universally conclusive.  The 2010-11 National and Big East Tournament Champion, UConn, was the 322th most experienced team, but they did finish just .500 in BE play.  Talent like Kemba Walker helps to settle the young troops as they become more big game experienced, but the lack of the experienced Walker this season has resulted in a UConn slide to date.  Last season’s UConn’s finish was the exception though (although not rare, as talent can triumph).

After verifying the overall value of experience, the next step was to provide historical context to confirm or deny current fan and media sentiment around the Big East Conference.  The following table looks at the average Big East… 1) Pomeroy conference ranking, 2) KPom’s average BE team’s experience level, 3) the average BE team’s national experience ranking, and 4) the number of BE’s teams at or above the national average in terms of experience.

• To debunk a myth, the Big East has historically been ranked as the third best overall conference, mainly because of the statistical limitations with its large number of teams.  This season is no different.
• What’s very different, which is the crux of this piece, is that the Big East has always been known for its elite top teams.  However, if experience is indeed one of a handful of success factors, then the BE is indeed down this year.
• There is only one team, Louisville, who has more experience than the average national team.  Last season there were 11 teams high on experience who knew and had played in the Big East wash cycle.  That explains a lot.
• More so, the average BE team level of experience is the lowest ever measured, basically in virgin territory — or about 17% less experienced than the previous low and 41% less experienced than last season.  Wow!

Old Man Marquette?


The outlook for Marquette based on experience helps explain their success to date, in that they are tied with Syracuse as the second most experienced team in the Big East.  However, this is also Marquette’s second youngest Big East team in measured times -- with only the 2006-07 team being younger.  This relative inexperience can help explain the scoring droughts as the team struggles to gather its offensive sea legs during game spurts this season.

• The inconsistent struggles of teams like UCONN, West Virginia and Seton Hall are easily seen in the lower experience levels.  
• You can also see that teams like Notre Dame and South Florida are rising to the top of the middle parity group and have chances at more favorable than expected seasons.  
• Villanova, Providence, Rutgers and St. Johns will continue to struggle despite their young talent, but will continue to show the signs of their upside.  
• Pittsburgh, with the return of their point guard, has the opportunity to continue their recent run after a horrid BE start.  Louisville has been hampered by injuries but an observer can easily see why they are playing more consistently as players return.  Georgetown has a blend of young and old, but that can explain also their highs and lows.

The outlook is for more parity within the conference, making the Big East the NFL of college basketball.  While the more experienced teams like Marquette and Syracuse may have bumps in the road as they are still very young  (and may also be hampered by injuries and other factors like Melo with academics), they are the ones who will be the winners because of upperclass leadership and overall match-up depth.  Watch out for Pittsburgh and Louisville to make season end runs as they get healthy.  The Big East is down in experience, but the wild ride seen every year will continue—just in different ways.  And, like fine wine, if given the right conditions and time, the teams of the Big East will be full-bodied by season’s end just like UConn last season.

January Non-Conference Report

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The time is drawing near when our non-conference opponents really matter. It's hard to believe the regular season is nearly 75% complete and that Selection Sunday is less than 6 weeks away, but that's just where we are. As Marquette moves into the final month before March Madness, let's take another look at what our non-con opponents have done in the past month, and where their RPI projects courtesy of RealTimeRPI.com.

Mount St. Mary's: The Mount went 3-5, by far their best month of the year. It was punctuated by a great win against Sacred Heart in which they fell behind, came back to take control of the game, fell behind again, came back to force overtime, fell behind, came back to force a second overtime, and fell behind again before finally winning 81-80 in double overtime. Let's hope the Mountaineers can carry that into February, where they will be favored in 4 of their 8 games. Their current RPI is 287, but their projected RPI is 272.

Norfolk State: The Spartans matched their January expectations with a 7-2 record. But losses in 2 of their last 3 has dropped them out of the top-100 RPI. There are a few upsides. First, there is virtually no chance NSU finishes outside the top-200 RPI. My preseason prediction was 275, so two wins over them, even if they aren't classed as "quality wins" will still be far more valuable than the RPI drag they were expected to be. Second, kenpom.com has NSU favored in all 8 of their remaining games this season. If they win those games, they should return to the top-100 RPI. Currently they are at 115 and projected to finish at 130. But if they win out, they'll be back in the top-100 and be a great boost for Marquette going into Selection Sunday, especially if they earn the MEAC's automatic bid.

Winthrop: The Eagles had more wins in January than they did in November and December combined. They tallied a 5-4 record and are in the middle of the Big South pack. They are only favored in 2 of 7 February games before the conference tournament kicks off. Right now Winthrop is at 276 in the RPI and projects to finish at 284.

Mississippi: The Rebels went 5-3 in January, but it could have been so much better. They dropped a double-overtime game at Auburn and squandered a double-digit halftime lead against Florida. That Ole Miss is still (barely) on the tournament bubble, however, is a good thing for Marquette. They will be underdogs in 5 of 7 in February, and probably need to win at least 4 of those (while tallying another quality win) if they want to be in the mix in March. But what's really important is that Ole Miss is currently ranked 42 in the RPI and projects to finish at 44. Ole Miss is potentially a very nice top-50 non-con win for the Warriors.

Jacksonville: After dropping all 6 games in December, the Dolphins lost their first 5 in January to extend their losing streak to 13. A short two-game winning streak was undone by losing their last 3 of the month to drop their record to 4-18. Looking ahead, however, the Dolphins will be favorites in 3 of 7 games in February. Their RPI is currently at 282 and projects to 288. What's nice is that if they (along with MSM and Winthrop) stay on course, Marquette will have zero sub-300 wins come Selection Sunday.

Wisconsin: The Badgers were much-maligned after dropping their first two of the month to drop their Big Ten record to 1-3, but have quietly won 6 straight to move into sole possession of second place in the Big Ten. Bucky is favored in 4 of 7 in February and faces some stern tests as they play Ohio State twice and Michigan State once. If they can manage to win 5 or 6 games this month, they stand a good chance of holding on for a second place league finish. This is also Marquette's best non-conference win as UW's RPI is 23 and they are projected to finish at 25.

Washington: The Huskies seem to have shaken off their early-season funk and managed to go 6-2 in January to move into a first-place tie in the Pac-12, and included a couple solid wins over Stanford and Arizona amongst their scalps. The Huskies are favored in 4 of 7 in February, but it wouldn't be unthinkable for them to win 5, 6, or even all 7 games. If they do, they can get back in the at-large picture. UW's RPI is currently 73 and projected to finish at 80. That won't be good enough, so their recent success will need to continue, or they'll need to win the Pac-12 Tournament if they want to be dancing.

Green Bay: The Phoenix went 3-4 on the month, and closed with 2 solid wins over Valpo and Butler, avenging earlier season defeats. Their RPI is currently at 160 but they'll need to keep getting some wins to keep from finishing at their projected 213. They are favored in 4 of 8 games in February, if they can manage those wins, they should remain as a top-200 team.

Northern Colorado: The Bears went 3-5 in January, which is a major disappointment for a team that was favored 7 times. The Bears are only favored twice in February, and with their RPI currently at 248 and projected at 259, MU fans will have to hope they win more than that to stay out of the sub-250 range that becomes a bit of a ding on the non-con resume.

LSU: The Tigers had a woeful January, going 2-6 while squandering chances at wins against likely tourney teams in Virginia and Mississippi State. LSU will be favored in 4 of 8 February games, though to have any chance at playing in the Big Dance they probably need to win 6 or 7 of those. They do still look like a solid NIT team, and with a current RPI of 78 that projects out to 81, shouldn't be a bad loss on the resume come Selection Sunday.

Milwaukee: On January 20, the Panthers woke up winners of 3 straight and alone atop the Horizon League. Since then, Rob Jeter's team has dropped 4 of 5 to fall to 4th place. They can turn it around as they are favored in 5 of 7 in February before the conference tournament. Even still, their RPI has fallen to 137 and is projected to drop to 144. It's highly unlikely, barring a perfect month and still probably needing a win or two in the conference tournament, that the Panthers get back into the top-100 RPI.

Vanderbilt: Vandy continued their solid close to 2011 by winning their first 5 games in 2012. They finished January with a 7-2 mark and look like they are back in the mix for the SEC crown. That will largely be determined in February. Vandy is favored in only 4 of 8 games, but the only teams they are underdogs against are Florida and Kentucky, twice each. Win 2 or more of those games and they'll be league title contenders. Regardless, their current RPI is 25 and predicted to finish at 23. No matter what, they are an acceptable loss when you're talking about the resume.

	Jan. W-L	Total W-L	RPI	Proj. RPI	SOS	OOC SOS	kenpom
Mt St Mary's	3-5	5-16	287	272	241	167	297
Norfolk St	7-2	15-6	115	130	248	91	183
Winthrop	5-4	7-14	276	284	270	104	262
Mississippi	5-3	14-7	42	44	36	114	111
Norfolk St	7-2	15-6	115	130	248	91	183
Jacksonville	2-8	4-18	282	188	179	101	245
Wisconsin	6-2	18-5	23	25	21	76	3
Washington	6-2	14-7	73	80	64	67	77
Green Bay	3-4	7-12	160	213	62	5	193
N Colorado	3-5	6-12	248	259	190	8	247
LSU	2-6	12-9	78	81	50	208	88
Milwaukee	4-5	12-10	137	144	144	130	123
Vanderbilt	7-2	16-6	25	23	10	9	31
Marquette	8-2	19-4	9	12	18	82	17

Bracketology: Jan 30

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This week's bracket was especially difficult, and really got tough starting around the 6-line. Mainly because most of the teams I wanted to consider have been losing lately. Most of them multiple times. And as I went further down the bracket, the worse the teams looked. Most of the teams near the bubble don't really deserve to be anywhere close to it, but the expanded field has made this a reality. Teams like Iowa State and Colorado State both in the field essentially on the basis of one good win. Teams like Notre Dame and UCF warranting consideration despite having as many sub-100 losses as they do top-50 wins. Anyway...let's look at the bracket:





The Big Ten has the most bids with 8, and again the Big East is on their heels with 7. Northwestern and Cincinnati dropped out of the field, respectively. Behind them, the SEC has 6, the Big 12 and A-10 each have 5, the ACC and Mountain West have 4 each, the West Coast has 3, and C-USA, the Pac-12, and the Missouri Valley have 2 each.

The last four byes went to Purdue, Xavier, BYU, and Dayton. The last four teams in the field were St. Louis, Iowa State, Colorado State, and Arkansas. The lowest RPI team to earn an at-large bid was #66 Arkansas while the lowest KenPom team in was #107 Colorado State.

The first four teams out were Notre Dame, NC State, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. The next four out were UCF, Texas, Northwestern, and Cincinnati. The highest snubbed RPI team was #48 Texas while the highest snubbed KenPom team was also Texas, rated #20.

From a Marquette perspective, my biggest fear would be overlooking a solid Davidson team. I feel that both Memphis and BYU are dangerous but beatable, and wouldn't fear either Duke or Illinois, though I'd expect a tough game. What surprised me the most was simply that MU has played their way up to the 3-line. But with virtually everyone crashing around them while Buzz Williams' team continues to simply win, it's hard not to have them up there. The field really starts to fall off in a hurry.

Buzz Williams for Big East Coach of the Year? Without a doubt in the first half

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The Big East conference season is only half over, but if it ended today Buzz Williams should be your runaway winner of the Big East Coach of the Year award for 2012. His team sits in 2nd place with a top 15 national ranking despite a season ending injury to his starting center, Chris Otule. The team's only two losses were on the road to league leading Syracuse and a heartbreaking loss at Georgetown.

The only other coaches with an outside shot might be Mike Brey, who has taken a Notre Dame team thought to be undermanned to 3rd in the standings. South Florida's Stan Heath has also raised a few eyebrows with the performance of his Bulls, but do they have the staying power to remain in the upper half of the league the balance of the season?

Offensively Buzz has the team running very efficiently. The Warriors currently are in the top 5 in the conference for Free Throw Attempts per game (3rd), Turnover % (5th), FG % (5th), Effective FG % (2nd), Assists per FG made (1st), scoring offense (2nd), Scoring margin (2nd), 3-PT FG % (1st), Assists (1st), Turnover margin (4th), Assist to Turnover ratio (3rd), and 3-Pt FGs made (4th).

Though his teams can sometimes get off to agonizing slow starts, Buzz hasn't panicked this season. The team has maintained their composure and found a way to comeback in virtually every one of their slow starts (sans Vanderbilt). He has successfully manipulated his lineup to incorporate talent sets that seem to fit the situation without disruption to the team or flow of the game. Specifically the use of Vander Blue, Todd Mayo and Junior Cadougan to maximize efficiency on offense and defense has been key of late.

MU has nine games to go with what looks like five sure fire wins and four others that are winnable, but will be tossups. Is 14-4 realistic? The recent injury to Davante Gardner will force Buzz to be even more creative during the second half stretch if they hope to hit that record. MU finishing with 14-4 would virtually guarantee Buzz as Big East Coach of the Year for 2012.

Yarou and Nova’s offensive rebounding makes it toughest challenge of 8-game stretch; MU tries to break 4-game losing streak at Nova

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Three down and five to go in the 8-game stretch of winnable games that gives MU the inside track on heading into UConn Feb. 18 at least in 2nd place in the Big East. Perhaps more importantly, the 0.71 points allowed per trip vs. South Florida culminated a 6-game stretch of excellent defense that put in MU in the top 20 of all defensive teams, which Rob pointed out Wednesday is the average for an Elite 8 team.



But can the much improved defense beat a team that is great at the one thing MU has been unable to stop since Otule's injury - offensive rebounding? While Maalik Wayns is the 15th best player in the league statistically, it is 6-foot-10 Mouphtaou Yarou (33rd best) and his back-up 6-foot-9 freshman Markus Kennedy have helped make Nova the 23rd best offensive rebounding team in the country and 11th best among BCS teams according to Pomeroy.

While MU is clearly the better team Saturday (11 a.m. tip-off), MU has been the much better team in all three games against teams ranked 23rd or higher in offensive rebounding (Nova first game, Pitt and Washington) and has barely survived all three games. This is the first time we go up against a dominant offensive rebounding team ON THE ROAD. MU seems to either be unable to keep these teams off the glass (45.7% offensive rebounding first game vs. Nova), or have to crash the defensive boards so hard that the offense can't get going in transition (vs. Pitt).

Since Chris Otule was injured MU has plunged to 279th in the country (35.4% offensive rebounding allowed). Put that together with Nova's offensive rebounding, and Nova projects to grab a scary 41.9% of their own misses. (You multiply the deviances of the offense and defense from the national average then multiply that figure back by the national average if anyone cares).

	Vil OffR	Mar DefR
	38.3	35.4
Natl Ave	32.5	32.5	Proj below
Deviance	1.18	1.09	41.72

In Milwaukee, Nova only fell short by 4 points because they hit only 3 of 17 three-pointers. With the average 8-point swing from one home court to another, that gives Nova a 4-point edge, while Pomeroy projects a 4-point Marquette win.

The good news (again, pointed out by Rob Wednesday) is that MU is coming off its best defensive performance ever in Big East play under Buzz. As the chart above shows, the 0.71 adjusted points allowed per trip against South Florida was even better than the incredible defense played against Wisconsin (0.77) and UW-Green Bay (0.79), though not as good as the manhandling of Mt. St. Mary’s to start the season (an 0.59 even after adjusting for Mt. St. Mary’s well below average offense).

If MU can win this one, then we project to win three of the next four – and the projected standings heading into the February 18 game at UConn would be:

Syracuse 12-2
Marquette 10-3
Georgetown 9-4
West Virginia 9-5
Cincinnati 8-5

It gets tougher after that, but if the defense keeps playing well, the final few weeks could be fun. Here is the game-by-game defense for the season.

Opponent	PtAll	Poss	Raw D	Adj D
Mt. St. Mary's	37	72	0.51	0.590
Norfolk St.	68	84	0.81	0.826
Winthrop	73	71	1.03	1.102
Mississippi	66	80	0.83	0.845
Norfolk St.	57	64	0.89	0.909
Jacksonville	56	68	0.82	0.851
Wisconsin	54	63	0.86	0.768
w/ Otule	59	72	0.82	0.840
Washington	77	72	1.07	0.999
UW Green Bay	61	77	0.79	0.845
N. Colorado	72	74	0.97	0.940
Louisiana St.	67	65	1.03	1.025
UWM	50	65	0.77	0.786
Vanderbilt	74	70	1.06	0.965
Villanova	77	73	1.05	0.963
Georgetown	73	66	1.11	0.996
1st 8 no Otule	69	70	0.98	0.942
Syracuse	73	74	0.99	0.840
St. John's	64	70	0.91	0.917
Pittsburgh	57	59	0.97	0.870
Louisville	63	72	0.88	0.845
Providence	72	65	1.11	1.051
South Florida	47	64	0.73	0.713
Last 6	63	67	0.93	0.872

For perspective, below are the Top 5 defenses in the land. With Otule, MUs 0.840 was better than any defense except Ohio State and Wisconsin. The first 8 games adjusting to Otule's absense, MU was only as good defensively as the 59th best defense (Indiana). In the past 6 games, MU's defense has been as good as the 8th best in the land - UNC.

Defenses	Adj D
1. Ohio State	0.777
2. Wisconsin	0.815
3. Kansas (same as MU with Otule)	0.841
4. Virginia	0.841
5. Florida St.	0.856
8. UNC (same as MU last 6 games)	0.872
20. Marquette	0.900
59. Indiana (same as MU 1st 8 without Otule)	0.940

Defense and Projections

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Last year, in early January, I wrote an article wondering if Defense was Marquette's Achilles Heel.  It's worth re-reading, but here is an update.

Teams that are elite have good defenses.  In particular, over the past five years, here are the average defensive rankings of teams at each level of the NCAA tourney.

MU, Gtown, Syracuse and Seton Hall claim 14 of top 25 BE players as MU goes for sole possession of 3rd place tonight

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No one would have predicted that Marquette and South Florida would be playing for sole possession of 3rd place in the Big East tonight. Marquette enters the Bradley Center tonight for a 7 p.m. start with three of the Top 25 players in the conference this year, a feat matched by Syracuse, Georgetown and Seton Hall that leaves the other 12 teams in the conference with only 11 between them.

Kevin Jones nudges out Jae Crowder in a two-way race for conference MVP in the Total Value Top 25 listed below, but if the Mountaineers are to stay near the top of the standings this year then Jones will have to carry them by himself as their next best two players barely crack the conference Top 50. West Virginia's Truck Bryant (39th) and freshman point guard Jaborie Hinds (47th) are having very good but not dominant seasons. The Top 25 most valuable players to date:

Rnk	Top 25 Big East Players	Team	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
1	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	6-foot-8	8.02	-2.20	10.21
2	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6-foot-6	5.44	-3.84	9.28
3	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	6-foot-5	6.02	-0.93	6.95
4	Jason Clark	Georgetown	6-foot-2	4.29	-2.37	6.66
5	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.74	-2.61	6.36
6	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	6-foot-8	5.18	-1.10	6.28
7	Fuquan Edwin	Seton Hall	6-foot-6	2.83	-3.42	6.25
8	Jordan Theodore	Seton Hall	6-foot-0	4.90	-0.98	5.88
9	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6-foot-0	4.71	-1.07	5.78
10	Herb Pope	Seton Hall	6-foot-8	2.60	-3.08	5.69
11	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	6-foot-7	4.03	-1.65	5.68
12	Gorgui Dieng	Louisville	6-foot-10	2.44	-3.21	5.65
13	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6-foot-4	3.98	-1.16	5.14
14	Jack Cooley	Notre Dame	6-foot-9	3.60	-1.47	5.07
15	Maalik Wayns	Villanova	6-foot-2	4.92	0.00	4.92
16	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6-foot-8	2.27	-2.60	4.87
17	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6-foot-8	3.47	-1.33	4.80
18	Kyle Kuric	Louisville	6-foot-4	3.40	-1.24	4.64
19	James Southerland	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.89	-1.61	4.50
20	Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	6-foot-2	4.41	0.00	4.41
21	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6-foot-1	4.36	0.00	4.36
22	Henry Sims	Georgetown	6-foot-10	2.43	-1.84	4.27
23	Jerian Grant	Notre Dame	6-foot-5	4.16	-0.03	4.18
24	Darius Johnson-Odom	Marquette	6-foot-2	3.59	-0.59	4.18
25	Brandon Triche	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.32	-0.84	4.17

Quick Explanation – then the Top 100 players by team:
Total Value is the measurement of the percentage of points a player averages adding to his team’s score with offense and subtracting from the opponents' score with defense on a given night. The calculation that Crowder adds 5.44% to Marquette’s score and takes 3.84% of the opponents points away with defense (Total Value 9.28%) indicates that Marquette would be projected to drop from a 24-7 team with Crowder to a 16-15 team without him if going by results to date and Pomeroy’s projections for the rest of the year. The eight games that switch from wins to losses if Crowder is not playing are; Washington, 2nd Norfolk State, Villanova and Pitt as well as projected scores for Seton Hall, Notre Dame, and 2nd Villanova and Georgetown games. Only Kevin Jones is more valuable in the Big East, and noone else is close.

Thankfully the engineer just finished the program to run Total Value this week, so I am no longer risking mistakes on long spreadsheets as I pinpoint the following three precise calculations:

1. Offensive Value Add was first covered by Luke Winn at Sports Illustrated, then picked up on by ESPN, and finally adopted as a building block for other calculations including a recent one from Basketball Prospectus.

2. The Defensive Value Subtract is equally important, and has been perfected in recent months by an engineer building my program, but is not nearly as easily grasped and I don't plan to detail the formulas further. However, while the overall team Defensive Value Subtracts are very accurate, you must use common sense to adjust for on-ball defense and rotations, within the team up to 1% plus or minus per player. For example, if you adjusted DJOs defense by 1% for his much improved on-ball defense, and subtracted 1% from Gardner's defensive rating for slow rotations, you end up with DJO as the 13th best player in the Big East and Davante Gardner as the 28th best.

3. The NBA Predictor is an adjustment I am finalizing to measure not the impact on the college team, but how much impact the player is likely to have if taken at the next level, as not all great college players can translate their game to the pros but others do surprisingly well. However, this third part of the program is intended for a much smaller audience so won’t appear here. There are NBA indicators with DJO that make him a potential first round pick, even though his high turnovers and low steals hold his rating back at the college level.

The first two factors give a very accurate account of every player in the league.

While certainly Syracuse has the inside track on the championship, in the end they do not appear as dominant to me as Ohio State, Kentucky or even UNC and Duke by the end of the year. If Marquette can win at Villanova Saturday, a toss-up game due to Nova’s strong offensive rebounding that often gives MU trouble, I believe we can legitimately consider the possibility that MU could win the Big East regular season title in a year in which the conference is down from the past three years.

Here are the Top 100 players grouped by team, starting with tonight’s opponent South Florida. I also list the projected final conference record based on Pomeroy.

Rnk	Marquette (Proj 12-6)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
2	Jae Crowder	6-foot-6	5.44	-3.84	9.28
17	Davante Gardner	6-foot-8	3.47	-1.33	4.80
24	Darius Johnson-Odom	6-foot-2	3.59	-0.59	4.18
51	Jamil Wilson	6-foot-7	1.38	-0.67	2.05
55	Vander Blue	6-foot-4	0.53	-1.44	1.97
61	Todd Mayo	6-foot-3	1.90	0.00	1.90
74	Junior Cadougan	6-foot-1	0.72	-0.66	1.37
85	Chris Otule	6-foot-11	0.00	-0.86	0.86
91	Derrick Wilson	6-foot-0	0.10	-0.37	0.47
94	Jamail Jones	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.36	0.36

Rnk	South Florida (Proj 9-9)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
29	Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	6-foot-8	1.74	-2.00	3.74
34	Ron Anderson	6-foot-8	2.83	-0.50	3.33
42	Hugh Robertson	6-foot-6	1.78	-0.81	2.59
76	Augustus Gilchrist	6-foot-10	0.81	-0.44	1.25
83	Shaun Noriega	6-foot-4	0.95	0.00	0.95
84	Jawanza Poland	6-foot-4	0.64	-0.28	0.92
95	LaVonte Dority	6-foot-1	0.35	0.00	0.35

Rnk	Cincinnati (Proj 11-7)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
13	Sean Kilpatrick	6-foot-4	3.98	-1.16	5.14
31	Cashmere Wright	6-foot-0	1.89	-1.59	3.48
40	Jaquon Parker	6-foot-3	2.48	-0.27	2.75
41	Yancy Gates	6-foot-9	1.43	-1.24	2.66
45	Dion Dixon	6-foot-3	1.72	-0.72	2.44
46	Justin Jackson	6-foot-8	0.59	-1.78	2.37
93	Jermaine Sanders	6-foot-5	0.36	0.00	0.36

Rnk	Connecticut (Proj 10-8)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
3	Jeremy Lamb	6-foot-5	6.02	-0.93	6.95
9	Shabazz Napier	6-foot-0	4.71	-1.07	5.78
50	Tyler Olander	6-foot-9	1.68	-0.37	2.06
60	Ryan Boatright	6-foot-0	1.82	-0.09	1.91
73	Niels Giffey	6-foot-7	1.30	-0.08	1.38
80	Alex Oriakhi	6-foot-9	0.74	-0.32	1.07

Rnk	DePaul (Proj 4-14)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
36	Brandon Young	6-foot-3	3.15	0.00	3.15
48	Jeremiah Kelly	6-foot-0	2.17	0.00	2.17
67	Krys Faber	6-foot-10	1.30	-0.31	1.61
86	Cleveland Melvin	6-foot-8	0.44	-0.37	0.81

Rnk	Georgetown (Proj 13-5)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
4	Jason Clark	6-foot-2	4.29	-2.37	6.66
6	Hollis Thompson	6-foot-8	5.18	-1.10	6.28
16	Otto Porter	6-foot-8	2.27	-2.60	4.87
22	Henry Sims	6-foot-10	2.43	-1.84	4.27
53	Nate Lubick	6-foot-8	1.16	-0.84	2.00
58	Markel Starks	6-foot-2	1.94	0.00	1.94
88	Mikael Hopkins	6-foot-9	0.47	-0.03	0.49

Rnk	Louisville (Proj 9-9)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
12	Gorgui Dieng	6-foot-10	2.44	-3.21	5.65
18	Kyle Kuric	6-foot-4	3.40	-1.24	4.64
28	Chris Smith	6-foot-2	3.36	-0.41	3.77
38	Russ Smith	6-foot-0	0.23	-2.67	2.90
52	Chane Behanan	6-foot-7	0.37	-1.67	2.04
71	Peyton Siva	5-foot-11	0.00	-1.45	1.45
87	Rakeem Buckles	6-foot-7	0.00	-0.52	0.52
98	Elisha Justice	5-foot-10	0.00	-0.27	0.27

Rnk	Notre Dame (Proj 9-9)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
14	Jack Cooley	6-foot-9	3.60	-1.47	5.07
23	Jerian Grant	6-foot-5	4.16	-0.03	4.18
69	Eric Atkins	6-foot-1	1.53	0.00	1.53
79	Scott Martin	6-foot-8	0.00	-1.13	1.13
92	Joey Brooks	6-foot-6	0.45	0.00	0.45

Rnk	Pitt (Projected 4-14)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
20	Ashton Gibbs	6-foot-2	4.41	0.00	4.41
43	Nasir Robinson	6-foot-5	2.51	0.00	2.51
44	Lamar Patterson	6-foot-5	2.46	0.00	2.46
56	Talib Zanna	6-foot-9	1.97	0.00	1.97
57	Dante Taylor	6-foot-9	1.77	-0.18	1.95
66	Travon Woodall	5-foot-11	1.68	0.00	1.68
81	Khem Birch	6-foot-9	0.53	-0.50	1.03
89	J.J. Moore	6-foot-6	0.49	0.00	0.49

Rnk	Providence (Proj 5-13)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
21	Bryce Cotton	6-foot-1	4.36	0.00	4.36
72	Bilal Dixon	6-foot-9	0.77	-0.67	1.44
75	Vincent Council	6-foot-2	1.30	0.00	1.30
97	Ron Giplaye	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.31	0.31
99	Gerard Coleman	6-foot-4	0.21	0.00	0.21

Rnk	Rutgers (Proj 8-10)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
26	Dane Miller	6-foot-6	0.94	-2.93	3.87
59	Mike Poole	6-foot-5	0.05	-1.86	1.91
62	Myles Mack	5-foot-9	0.77	-1.07	1.83
63	Gilvydas Biruta	6-foot-8	0.50	-1.25	1.75
82	Jerome Seagears	6-foot-1	0.99	0.00	0.99
100	Austin Johnson	6-foot-8	0.06	0.00	0.06

Rnk	Seton Hall (Proj 11-7)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
7	Fuquan Edwin	6-foot-6	2.83	-3.42	6.25
8	Jordan Theodore	6-foot-0	4.90	-0.98	5.88
10	Herb Pope	6-foot-8	2.60	-3.08	5.69
49	Patrik Auda	6-foot-9	1.81	-0.27	2.08

Rnk	St. John's (Proj 4-14)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
35	D'Angelo Harrison	6-foot-3	2.72	-0.52	3.25
70	Sir'Dominic Pointer	6-foot-6	0.00	-1.48	1.48
90	Amir Garrett	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.47	0.47

Rnk	Syracuse (Proj 15-3)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
5	Dion Waiters	6-foot-4	3.74	-2.61	6.36
11	Kris Joseph	6-foot-7	4.03	-1.65	5.68
19	James Southerland	6-foot-8	2.89	-1.61	4.50
25	Brandon Triche	6-foot-4	3.32	-0.84	4.17
27	C.J. Fair	6-foot-8	2.36	-1.48	3.84
30	Scoop Jardine	6-foot-2	2.30	-1.31	3.61
32	Fab Melo	7-foot-0	1.24	-2.19	3.43
54	Baye Moussa Keita	6-foot-10	1.29	-0.70	1.98
64	Michael Carter-Williams	6-foot-5	0.63	-1.06	1.70
68	Rakeem Christmas	6-foot-9	0.67	-0.93	1.60

Rnk	Villanova (Proj 7-11)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
15	Maalik Wayns	6-foot-2	4.92	0.00	4.92
33	Mouphtaou Yarou	6-foot-10	2.67	-0.75	3.43
37	Dominic Cheek	6-foot-6	3.06	0.00	3.06
77	James Bell	6-foot-6	1.22	0.00	1.22
96	Achraf Yacoubou	6-foot-4	0.33	0.00	0.33

Rnk	West Virginia (Proj 13-5)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
1	Kevin Jones	6-foot-8	8.02	-2.20	10.21
39	Darryl Bryant	6-foot-2	2.85	0.00	2.85
47	Jabarie Hinds	5-foot-11	1.42	-0.84	2.26
65	Deniz Kilicli	6-foot-9	0.83	-0.86	1.69
78	Aaron Brown	6-foot-5	1.16	0.00	1.16

Back and Forth: 5-2 Edition

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Rob:  Good morning. How does 5-2 go with your coffee?

Tim:  Not bad.  Good showing vs. Providence.  After holding PC to 41% eFG%, #MUBB is holding the opposition to an eFG% of 45.5% overall, their best since Pomeroy began tracking in '03.  And, the turnover rate for #MUBB opponents is a whopping 24.5%.

Rob:  You know that I care way more about the eFG% defense.  It's a great sign, especially since I believe that the ability to force turnovers goes down as the season goes on and you face better opponents*.
*note: not supported by analysis

Tim:  It was good to see another Racine product key an #MUBB victory too.  Good showing by Jamil; we’ve been waiting for him to break out, and to deliver on the road in a conference game makes it all the more impressive.

Rob:  Agreed.  The spread on players that have been key contributors is big.  That's a good sign, and to have Jamil play strongly bodes well for the team.

Tim:  By the way, the PC game marks three straight games where Vander has logged less than 20 mins.  Mayo's emergence seems to have pushed Vander into a less prominent role.  And again, no Jamail Jones, who still has not shown any signs of establishing himself.

Rob:  Vander wasn't bad, though. He played his role well. Shot efficiently, one turnover, four boards.  And Jamail doesn't seem to be in good trend, although I do hold out hope he'll stick around and contribute as an upperclassman. Older players are so important for good programs*.
*again not supported by analysis

Tim:  Amen.  What is interesting is that Vander is becoming a role player rather than the “load-bearing wall” we presumed he would be based on his high school accolades.  I am concerned that he is disappearing again, just like last season. Blue has not hit double figures in points since NoCol. In his last four BE games he is averaging 3 ppg and his minutes are down.  While he is not a scorer, his struggles against better competition mirror that of his freshman season.

Rob:  He doesn't need to be a load bearing wall. As long as he defends and plays efficiently, there are others that can pick up that slack. At least in comparison to last year, he's still contributing in other ways.

It might be time to pull him from the starting lineup officially, just like Paint Touches was asking.  I wonder if he's got the maturity to deal with that disappointment. Also, I wonder if putting Mayo in would reverse the slow starts this team is prone to suffering.

I really liked the late game lineup of Jae, Jamil, and Gardner all at the same time.

Tim:  Agreed on Vander’s efficiency, his overall game is improved year-to-year … but let’s be honest … players could not care less about a coach saying, “you’re doing great and playing so efficiently for 18 minutes – really, that is better than playing for 30 like you have for your whole life”

Like you said, does he have the maturity to deal with this?  It's hard to get pulled as a starter at any level of competition in any sport.  Truth is, Vander is a role player right now.

One thing that is interesting is how much more assertive Junior has been of late ... he is committed to the “bully drive” and has delivered 5, 7, 9, 6 and 10 assists consecutively, his best stretch since the first month of the season.

Rob:  I think Buzz has been doing a really good job of managing his rotation the last few games. The way he's shuffling the players around has been great. He is tweaking his team on the fly, and it is working.

Honestly, pretty much EVERYONE on the team is role player level but DJO, Jae, and Gardner.  That's how I consider Vander/Mayo and appreciate what Buzz is doing with his rotations.

Agreed on Junior.  I really need to find a way to measure his impact.  The stats aren't so kind to him, but there has to be a better way to show his importance.

Win on Tuesday! 6-2 would be nice

Tim:  Agreed on all points.  Go #mubb!

Bracketology: Jan. 21

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It's early. Really early. But the way I see it, the best way to have an accurate feel for what might happen come March is to have an idea of what was going on in the months before March. I decided to take a stab at my own version of bracketology. I've used a compilation of RPI, SOS, Pomeroy and Sagarin computer rankings, Record v Top-100, good wins, bad losses, and non-conference SOS. Before analyzing, here's the bracket:




The Big Ten leads the way with 9 bids. The Big East is just behind them with 8. Both the Big 12 and SEC have 5 bids, the ACC and C-USA each have 4, and the A-10, Mountain West, and West Coast have 3 apiece. The only other multi-bid leagues are the Missouri Valley and Pac-12 with 2 each.

The last four byes went to Purdue, Southern Miss, Minnesota, and Florida State. The last four teams into the field were BYU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and UCF. The lowest RPI team to make the field was #85 Cincinnati while the lowest KenPom team to make the field was #93 UCF.

The first four teams out were Colorado State, St. Joseph's, Mississippi, and Northern Iowa. The next four out were St. Louis, LSU, Arizona, and Oregon. The highest RPI team snubbed was #39 Northern Iowa while the highest KenPom team snubbed was #16 St. Louis.

From a Marquette perspective, I feel this would be a decent draw, if somewhat predictable. I'd almost be surprised if MU didn't see Indiana by the Round of 32. I contemplated a first-round match-up with Stanford, but felt Creighton should really be up against a BCS-conference team. Kentucky looms large in the Sweet 16, but clearly that one would have Warrior fans confident considering the history of the two programs

I also tried to have some of the typical NCAA humor we see on Selection Sunday outside of the Crean v Marquette rematch. Hope if nothing else, it provides a bit of enjoyment, and I'll be updating this as the season goes on.